滇池流域社会经济环境系统优化与情景分析  

Systematic Optimization and Scenario Analysis of Social Economy and Environment in Dianchi Watershed

作　　者：盛虎[1] 刘慧[1,2] 王翠榆[1] 郭怀成[1] 

机构地区：[1]北京大学环境科学与工程学院,北京100871 [2]香港中文大学地理与资源管理系,中国香港

出　　处：《北京大学学报（自然科学版）》2012年第4期647-656,共10页Acta Scientiarum Naturalium Universitatis Pekinensis

基　　金：国家水体污染控制与治理科技重大专项(2008ZX07102-001)资助

摘　　要：以环境承载力为理论依据,在滇池流域社会经济环境系统分析的基础上,建立了在自然资源和环境容量约束下以滇池流域内人口和经济最大化为目标的滇池流域社会经济环境系统优化模型,并分别对是否考虑从牛栏江调水这两种情景下的高、中、低3种规划方案进行比较和评估,发现调水对滇池流域人口和经济的承载能力有较大提高,而同一情景下中、低两种规划方案对滇池流域人口和经济的承载能力差异很小。为此,从灵敏度范围的角度对这一现象进行解释,从而优选出中方案作为滇池流域综合管理最佳的规划方案。Based on the theory of Environmental Carrying Capacity and the systematic analysis of social economy and environment in Dianchi Watershed, the authors establish Dianchi watershed social economy and environment system optimization model （DSEESOM）, taking population and economy as the maximum objective function while natural resources and environmental capacity as constraints. Through DSEESOM, the high, median and low planning schemes under two scenarios considering whether take water transfer project of Niulan River or not, are compared and evaluated, which indicate that the carrying capacity of population and economy will be improved after water transfer; meanwhile the differences of the carrying capacity under median and low planning scheme are minor. Therefore, the result explains the phenomenon from the perspective of sensitivity range, and then the median planning scheme is taken as the best scheme for the integrated management of Dianchi watershed.

关 键 词：滇池流域 社会经济 优化模型 情景分析 

分 类 号：X24[环境科学与工程—环境科学]