人口年龄结构变化与劳动收入份额:理论与经验研究  

Change of Population Age Structure and Labor Income Share in China:Theory and Empirical Analysis

作　　者：魏下海[1] 董志强[1] 赵秋运[1] 

机构地区：[1]华南师范大学经济与管理学院,510006

出　　处：《南开经济研究》2012年第2期100-119,共20页Nankai Economic Studies

基　　金：教育部人文社会科学研究一般项目"人口年龄结构变化与劳动收入份额:理论;模型及实证研究"(11YJC790202);广东省软科学项目"技术劳动力短缺与人力资本激励问题研究:以珠三角为例"(2011B070300091);广东省人文社科重点研究基地重大项目"广东劳动力市场:微观机理与宏观绩效"(06ZDXM790008);广东省高校学科建设创新团队重大项目"正式制度;非正式制度与经济治理的机制研究"(051500020100925);中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金项目(NKZXB10043)研究资助

摘　　要：既有文献对中国劳动收入份额下降成因的解释集中在产业结构变动、技术进步、全球化、二元经济体制以及财政效应等方面,本文则从人口年龄结构视角提供一种新的解释。通过一个理论模型表明,人口年龄结构变化将影响个体的储蓄行为,进而影响生产的资本集约程度;在资本和劳动存在替代关系的情形下,资本集约程度将降低劳动收入份额。利用1990—2007年间省际数据的经验研究,确认了老年抚养比上升和少儿抚养比下降是解释我国劳动收入份额下降的重要因素,即便控制其他潜在的影响劳动收入份额的各种因素后,上述结论仍是显著且稳健的。This paper tries to give a new explanation, from population age stracture per- spective to deceasing labor income share in current China. Our explanation is different from the ideas in existing literatures, which focus on the role of industrial structure; change, technological progress, globalization, dual economic system, and the fiscat effect. A theoretical model is developed to show that, change of population age structure may affect the individuals＇ saving behavior, and thus affect capital intensity, which can naake labor income share lower when there is a substitute relation between labor and capital. Empirical investigation is conducted with a panel data set of 29 provinces from 1990 to 2013,7, and the results confirm that, increasing old dependency and decreasing children dependency are significant factors for decreasing labor income share, even other potential important factors are controlled.

关 键 词：人口年龄结构 劳动收入份额 老龄化 

分 类 号：C924.2[社会学—人口学] F126.2F224