灾害风险的决定因素及其管理  

Determinants of Disaster Risk and Disaster Risk Management

作　　者：尹姗[1,2] 孙诚[1,2] 李建平[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国科学院大气物理研究所大气科学和地球流体力学数值模拟国家重点实验室,北京100029 [2]中国科学院研究生院,北京100049

出　　处：《气候变化研究进展》2012年第2期84-89,共6页Climate Change Research

基　　金：国家973计划项目(2010CB950400);中国科学院战略性先导科技专项子课题(XDA05090403);中国气象局IPCC报告作者资助项目

摘　　要：灾害风险的影响不仅由灾害本身决定,更取决于风险的决定因素——暴露度和脆弱性。暴露度和脆弱性是动态的、多维度的。高暴露度和脆弱性是不平衡发展的结果。在气候变化的背景下,只有正确认识暴露度和脆弱性的维度,重视风险沟通和风险累积,选择适当的方法进行风险评估,才能设计和实施有效的灾害风险管理战略以适应长期气候变化。在致力于降低、转移和分担风险的同时,还要对灾害风险进行防御和响应,提高对不断变化的风险的恢复力。通过使用这些整合的灾害风险管理方法,灾害风险管理决策与应对措施会限制暴露度和脆弱性,使气候变化适应成为可能。The impacts of disaster risk not only are determined by hazard events, but also depend on the ctetermlnants of risk： exposure and vulnerability. Exposure and vulnerability are dynamic and multi-dimensional. High exposure and vulnerability are generally the outcome of skewed development processes. In the context of climate change, designing and implementing effective disaster risk management strategies to adapt to longer-term climate change need to understand dimensions of exposure and vulnerability rigorously, pay attention to risk communication and risk accumulation, and choose reliable methodologies for risk assessmertt. While aiming to reduce, transfer and share risk, it is also important to prepare for and respond to disaster risk, and increase resilience to changing risk. By using these integrative disaster risk management approaches, disaster risk management decisions and corresponding measures can constrain exposure and vulnerability and enable future climate change adaption.

关 键 词：暴露度 脆弱性 灾害风险管理 适应 

分 类 号：X4[环境科学与工程—灾害防治]