变化环境下白洋淀湿地演变驱动机制分析  

Analysis of Driving Mechanism of Baiyangdian Wetland Evolution under Changing Environment

作　　者：方宏阳[1,2] 栾清华[1,2] 赵志轩[2] 王刚[2] 韩冬梅[1] 

机构地区：[1]河北工程大学水电学院,河北邯郸056038 [2]中国水利水电科学研究院水资源所,北京100038

出　　处：《水电能源科学》2012年第8期107-111,共5页Water Resources and Power

基　　金：国家重点基础研究发展计划(973计划)基金资助项目(2010CB951102);国家自然科学基金创新研究群体基金资助项目(50721066)

摘　　要：随着人口增加和社会经济发展,白洋淀湿地的生态用水与生态用地被严重挤占,导致湿地面积严重萎缩、流域景观破碎化程度加剧。运用小波分析法和马尔科夫预测方法分别研究白洋淀湿地降水、气温演变规律及土地类型的转变情况,从自然和社会两方面探究变化环境下白洋淀湿地演变驱动机制。结果表明,白洋淀流域降雨量减少,气温升高,气候发展总趋势向着暖干方向发展,生态用地将进一步被挤占,水面和滩地面积将大幅度减少,在社会变化环境驱动下白洋淀的生态系统将更加脆弱。The ecological water and land in Baiyangdian wetland are seriously occupied with the population increase and social economy development, which leads to the severe decrease of wetland area and damage of landscapes in river basin. In this paper, we use wavelet analysis and Markov forecast method to study the precipitation, temperature evolution and transformation of land types in Baiyangdian wetland. The driving mechanism of Baiyangdian wetland evolution are discussed from the aspects of nature and society. The result shows that precipitation in Baiyangdian river basin is decreasing, temperature is rising and climate is getting warmer and drier; furthermore, ecological land will be occupied, water surface and bottomland will decrease in large amount; the Baiyangdian ecological system will be more vulnerable under the drive of social changing environment.

关 键 词：变化环境 湿地演变 驱动机制 生态系统 白洋淀 

分 类 号：TV213.4[水利工程—水文学及水资源] X43[环境科学与工程—灾害防治]