土地供给方式对房价的影响研究——基于面板误差修正模型的实证分析  

Study on the Effects of Land Supply Modes on Housing Prices Based on Panel Error Correction Model

作　　者：黄静[1,2] 王洪卫[1] 

机构地区：[1]上海财经大学公共经济与管理学院,上海200433 [2]上海师范大学商学院,上海200234

出　　处：《上海财经大学学报（哲学社会科学版）》2012年第4期90-97,共8页Journal of Shanghai University of Finance and Economics

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(71103121);上海市哲学社会科学规划课题(2011EJL002);中国博士后科学基金项目(94887);上海市高校青年教师培养资助计划项目(shsf002);教育部社科研究基金一般项目(11YJA790020)阶段性成果

摘　　要：本文建立30个城市面板误差修正模型,对"8.31土地大限"前后房价与地价的面板Granger因果关系进行检验和比较,分析土地供给方式对房价的影响。文章的主要结论是:(1)房价的历史信息(1年内)对土地价格影响显著,开发商依据房价预期进行土地价值估值的预期效应显著存在;(2)长期来看,土地招拍挂制度的实施使得住房市场和土地市场的联动性加强,房价上涨拉高了地价,但房价上涨却不能由地价上涨来解释。This paper employs the data of 30 cities to construct a panel error correction model and analyzes the effect of land supply modes on housing prices by testing the Granger causality relationship between housing prices and land prices. It arrives at the following conclusions： firstly, the historical information of housing prices has a significant effect on land prices, and there is obvious expectation effect that developers estimate land value according to the expectation of housing prices; secondly, in the long term, the enforcement of land bid, auction and listing system strengthens the interaction between housing market and land market; the increase in housing prices leads to the increase in land prices, but the increase in land prices cannot provide an explanation of the increase in housing prices.

关 键 词：土地供给方式 房价 地价 面板误差修正模型 

分 类 号：F235.91[经济管理—会计学]