Analysis of Chinese Manufacturing Export Duration  

作　　者：Jun Shao Kangning Xu Bin Qiu 

机构地区：[1]Department of International Trade and Economics,Southeast University

出　　处：《China & World Economy》2012年第4期56-73,共18页中国与世界经济（英文版）

基　　金：supported by the National Social Science Foundation of China(Grant No.11CGL107,10BJY081 and 10CJY052);Key Social Science Projects in Universities in Jiangsu(Grant No.2011ZDAXM004);New Century Excellent Talents Program in University of Ministry of Education of China(Grant No. NCET-09-0291)

摘　　要：This paper studies the duration of Chinese manufacturing exports and its determinants, using disaggregated 6-digit level Harmonized System product trade data from 1995 to 2007. Cox proportional hazard, Weibull and exponential models are used to examine the effects of various factors on export duration. It is revealed that export duration tends to be rather short-lived. It is also found that GDP and GDP per capita of the export destination have positive effects on export duration, while trade relationships with distant and landlocked countries are generally of shorter duration. In addition, export duration is longer for differentiated and parts and components products, as well as products with large initial trade values. WTO membership is also important for longer export duration. Our empirical analysis suggests that developed markets, such as the USA and the EU, are important to China, and should still be the major sources for Chinese export growth in the long run. Moreover, technical innovation of firms and free trade agreement negotiations will be helpful for sustainable export growth.This paper studies the duration of Chinese manufacturing exports and its determinants, using disaggregated 6-digit level Harmonized System product trade data from 1995 to 2007. Cox proportional hazard, Weibull and exponential models are used to examine the effects of various factors on export duration. It is revealed that export duration tends to be rather short-lived. It is also found that GDP and GDP per capita of the export destination have positive effects on export duration, while trade relationships with distant and landlocked countries are generally of shorter duration. In addition, export duration is longer for differentiated and parts and components products, as well as products with large initial trade values. WTO membership is also important for longer export duration. Our empirical analysis suggests that developed markets, such as the USA and the EU, are important to China, and should still be the major sources for Chinese export growth in the long run. Moreover, technical innovation of firms and free trade agreement negotiations will be helpful for sustainable export growth.

关 键 词：DURATION manufacturing export SURVIVAL 

分 类 号：F425[经济管理—产业经济] F752.62