基于BP神经网络的垃圾热值预测模型  

Prediction Models for the Heating Values of Municipal Refuse Based on BP Neural Network

作　　者：马晓茜[1] 谢泽琼[1] 

机构地区：[1]华南理工大学电力学院.广州510640

出　　处：《科技导报》2012年第23期46-50,共5页Science & Technology Review

基　　金：国家重点基础研究发展计划(973计划)项目(2011CB201500)

摘　　要：入炉垃圾热值不稳定,对焚烧炉的稳定运行有很大影响。采用遗传算法优化BP神经网络的权值和阈值,建立垃圾焚烧炉入炉垃圾热值的预测模型。利用Garson方法和主成分分析法对某垃圾焚烧电厂在线运行数据进行分析后,作为BP神经网络的输入参数,实现入炉垃圾热值的在线测量和预测。研究结果表明,该模型预测平均相对误差为2.64%,检验样本相对误差平均值概率为95%的置信区间为[-1.75,2.59],有较高的准确性和置信度,具有较好的工程应用价值。The heating values of municipal refuse entering into the incinerator are unstable, which have a great influence on the stable operation of the incineration. By using genetic algorithms to optimize initial weighs and thresholds of BP neural network, a predictive model is established to predict the heating values of municipal refuse. The .online operating data are processed based on Garson method and principal component analysis, and then those data are used as input parameters of BP neural network. The measurement and prediction of the heating values of municipal refuse are able to be obtained on-line. The results show that the relative average error for the predicted values is 2.64%. The confidence interval （95%） of the relative average error for the test samples is between -1.75 and 2.59. Therefore, the model has both high accuracy and high confidence level, which is very suitable for engineering applications.

关 键 词：主成分分析法 遗传算法 BP神经网络 垃圾焚烧炉 热值 

分 类 号：TP183[自动化与计算机技术—控制理论与控制工程] TK16[自动化与计算机技术—控制科学与工程]