基于Ⅰ-GM(O,N)模型的干线客机价格预测方法  

Method of route airliner price forecast based onⅠ-GM(O,N) model

作　　者：何沙玮[1,2] 刘思峰[1,2] 方志耕[1,2] 

机构地区：[1]南京航空航天大学经济与管理学院,南京210016 [2]南京航空航天大学灰色系统研究所,南京210016

出　　处：《系统工程理论与实践》2012年第8期1761-1767,共7页Systems Engineering-Theory & Practice

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(90924022,70971064,70701017,70901041,71171113),国家自然科学基金国际(地区)合作与交流(71111130211);国家社科重大项目(10zd&014);

摘　　要：针对概念设计阶段干线客机相关信息难以获取的特点,利用整机价格与性能参数的相关性和利用灰关联分析筛选出了影响飞机价格的关键性能参数;通过确定排序基准序列,建立了基于特征序列内部空穴点预测的I-GM(0,N)模型.在案例分析中利用该模型对我国X型新研干线客机的目录价格进行预测,并对各现役干线客机的目录价格进行模拟.误差分析和精度检验证明模型的模拟结果较好,并可以预见模型对我国X型客机的目录价格能够进行较为准确的预测,是一种概念设计阶段较为实用的干线客机价格预测方法.Due to the difficulty in obtaining information in the conceptual design phase, this paper presents a route airliner price forecast method based on I-GM（O,N） model for vacant point forecast in characteristic sequence. After selecting price-affecting factors as well as setting the Benchmark Ranking Series based on Grey Relational Analysis, the listing prices of X aircraft, a currently developed route airliner in China, is forecasted by I-GM（O,N）. Proved to have good forecast and simulation results in a case study of X aircraft price forecast and price simulation of some current route airliners, this method is practical in price forecast of route airliners in conceptual design phase.

关 键 词：干线客机 价格预测 灰关联分析 概念设计阶段 

分 类 号：N941.5[自然科学总论—系统科学]