基于自主体的全球碳交易模拟  

Research on carbon trading market:An agent-based simulation

作　　者：朱潜挺[1,2] 吴静[1] 王铮[1,3] 

机构地区：[1]中国科学院科技政策与管理科学研究所,北京100190 [2]中国科学院研究生院,北京100049 [3]华东师范大学地理信息科学教育部重点实验室,上海200062

出　　处：《地理研究》2012年第9期1547-1558,共12页Geographical Research

基　　金：国家重点基础研究发展计划973项目(2012CB955804);中国科学院战略性先导科技专项(XDA05150900);国家自然科学基金资助项目(40901196)

摘　　要：碳交易是未来全球应对气候变化的重要组成部分之一。基于Agent建模技术,开发了一个包含中国、美国、日本、欧盟、前苏联地区以及世界其他地区的全球碳交易模拟系统,并且根据人均累积排放权均等和减排目标控制原则,设置了"丁标准"情景和"2℃目标"情景,对全球碳交易行为展开了模拟研究。研究发现:(1)随着碳排放权的逐年减少,未来碳交易价格将呈上升趋势;(2)碳交易将有助于资金从发达国家向发展中国家转移;(3)由于碳交易允许配额缺口区域向配额盈余区域购买碳排放权,未来发达国家的人均碳排放量仍将高于发展中国家;(4)虽然碳交易能提高全球累计拉姆齐效用,但无论从中国在未来碳市场中的收支情况,还是全球福利水平的改善程度来看,"2℃目标"情景均将优于"丁标准"情景。The carbon trading would be one of the most important parts in climate change in future. Based on agent modeling, this paper establishes a global carbon trading simulation system that includes China, the US, Japan, the EU, the Former Soviet Union, and Rest of the World （ROW）. According to the principle of accumulative emission per capita e- qualization and emission reduction targets control, two scenarios simulating global carbon trading are set in this paper, ＂Ding standard＂ and ＂2℃ target＂ scenarios. The study finds that： （1） the global carbon trading price will increase because of the decreasing quota of carbon emissions both in the ＂Ding standard＂ and ＂2℃ target＂ scenarios; （2） Carbon trading market will help to transfer fund from developed countries to developing countries （3） Since developed countries can buy emission quota from developing countries, carbon e- mission per capita of developed countries will remain higher than that of developing coun- tries in future; （4） Carbon trading market improves the accumulated global Ramsey＇s utili ty in both the ＂Ding standard＂ or ＂2℃ target＂ scenarios. However, ＂2℃ target＂ scenario can do better than ＂Ding standard＂ scenario both in China＇s future benefit and in improve- ment of global welfare.

关 键 词：碳交易 AGENT建模 配额交易机制 减排方案 

分 类 号：X196[环境科学与工程—环境科学]