强震巨灾后死亡人数的早期预测方法  

Earlier assessing death toll after disastrous earthquake

作　　者：刘爱兵[1] 郑静晨[1] 刘晓军[1] 张金红[1] 宁宝坤[2] 曲国胜[2] 刘庆[1] 张庆江[1] 李向晖[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国武警总医院,北京100039 [2]中国地震应急搜救中心

出　　处：《中华急诊医学杂志》2012年第9期962-965,共4页Chinese Journal of Emergency Medicine

基　　金：基金项目：国家自然科学基金（70973139）

摘　　要：目的利用强震巨灾后人员死亡时增量K值随时间t变化的函数关系，研究早期评估死亡总人数的方法。方法选取中国国际救援队提供的持续性信息保障工作以来积累的强震巨灾的10次典型震例，利用统计学软件SPSS17．0对数据进行计算，并建立数学模型。结果人员死亡时增量K值最大值（Kmax）所对应的时间点为T，为8—12h，2T时间内的曲线呈近似正态分布，对正态分布曲线进行积分求和估计线下面积即2r时问内的上报死亡人数形，即对W=∫02Tf（t）dt函数计算。W与死亡总数M正相关（P〈0．01），根据曲线模型模拟的回归分析可得死亡总数在2T时间内预测的死亡人数的函数关系M=W1.23×0．194，该幂函数判定系数屠=0．88。结论利用实时信息系统，根据早期上报死亡人数可在震后8～12h估计出死亡总人数，估计的函数式为W=∫02Tf（t）dt和M-W1.23×0.194.Objective To explore a method for earlier evaluating death toll based on a function relationship （an increasing hour-increasing death index （K value） followed with time （T） changing after catastrophic earthquake. Methods Information data of 10 typical occurrences of catastrophic earthquake obtained from China International Search and Rescue Team （CISAR） were analyzed. Total deaths were estimated according to the simulation function made by hour-increasing death index （K value） followed with time （T） changing. Expected value of the simulation function was assessed by statistical software SPSS version 17.0 to establish the model of simulation function. Results The length of time （T） to reach K maximum （ KmaX ） was （ 12. 94 ±8.18 ） h and then the K value was gradually decreased. Kmax was symmetrically scattered within 2 T time. Estimated death toll （W） within 2 T was obtained from calculatingthe integration summation of the function to get a formula as W =∫∞kf（t）dt. This Estimated death toll（W） numbers was correlated approximately with the death toll （M） from authoritative report （P 〈 0. 01 ）. According to the regression analysis of model simulation curve, the predictive function of death toll within 2 T was M = W123 ×0. 194. A determinant coefficient of this power function R2 was 0. 88. Conclusions Earlier estimating death toll within about 12 h should be carried out by using the data of real-time information report system.

关 键 词：强震巨灾 死亡人数 预测 函数 

分 类 号：R195[医药卫生—卫生统计学]