多种均一性检验方法比较研究  

Research on the Comparison of Different Homogeneity Test Methods

作　　者：刘佳[1,2] 马振峰[1] 范广洲[2] 游泳[1] 

机构地区：[1]四川省气候中心,成都610071 [2]成都信息工程学院,成都610225

出　　处：《气象》2012年第9期1121-1128,共8页Meteorological Monthly

基　　金：中国气象局2010年气候变化专项(ccfs-2010)资助

摘　　要：气候资料的均一性检验对气候观测及变化研究有着重要作用。本文从四川省160个台站近50年气温资料中,选取具有连续观测记录的站点105个,综合SNHT(标准正态均一性检验)、Buishand检验、Pettitt检验、MASH(均一性序列多元分析)、TPR(二位相回归检验)和von Neumann比率法,对该省年平均气温进行均一性检验。结果表明有42个台站存在序列间断点,占40%;而不均一台站中,因迁站导致的有29个,更换仪器引起的有19个。对气温序列分年代统计发现不均一台站数目有增加的趋势,其中20世纪60—70和80—90年代不均一性均由台站迁移所致。评估不同检验方法的敏感度和适用性,发现SNHT法与Buishand法、Pettitt法检验结果相符率为48.6%,TPR法与其他方法相符率偏低,但该法不涉及邻近站是否均一,在分析中可做补充判断。参考四川省地形特征分析,SNHT法在盆地及山地台站的断点显露率最高,分别为67.6%和57.1%,漏检和误判较少;高原地区SNHT法和Buishand法显露率较高,其中Buishand法漏检和误判率最低。鉴于减小对元数据依赖度的均一化检验思路,应采用多种检验方法综合,有助于气候资料在区域气候变化研究中的有效利用。Homogenization of climate observations remains a challenge to climate change research. To ex- amine the influence of metadata on homogenizing climate data, the authors applied many test methods in- cluding SHNT （standard normal homogeneity test）, Buishand test, Pettitt test, MASH （multiple analysis of series for homogenization）, TPR （two-phase regression）, and Von Neumann ratio test to the Sichuan annual temperature series during 1960--2009. The results show that there are 42 stations existing disconti- nuity, about 40o//00 ; in the inhomogeneous stations, 29 were caused by station migration, and 19 caused by the replacement of equipment. The heterogeneity of the station was increasing during 1960s--1970s, 1980s --1990s and after 2000, and most breakpoints were caused by migration. Analyzing and assessing the sen- sitivity and applicability of the test methods show that, 48.6~/00 of the SNHT test results were consistent with Buishand and Pettitt, and TPR method which does not involve adjacent stations was consistent with other methods in a low rate. In reference to the topography of Sichuan, it is found that SNHT makes the breakpoint being revealed with the highest rate in the basin and mountain stations, reaching 67.6% and 57.1%, and the missed rate and false positives were low. SNHT and Buishand methods make the breakpoint being revealed with the highest rate in plateau stations, and the missed rate and false positives were low with Buishand. Therefore, in view of reducing dependence on metadata, the homogenization test with the integrated application of variety test methods should contribute to climate change research effectively.

关 键 词：气候序列 均一性检验 间断点 敏感度 相符率 

分 类 号：P591.1[天文地球—地球化学]