连云港近海风速分布特征及分区预报  

Characteristics of wind speed in LianYun-gang and forecast in the sub-region

作　　者：冯还岭 张红华[1] 王桂臣[1] 魏建苏[2] 杨红梅[1] 

机构地区：[1]连云港市气象局,江苏连云港222006 [2]江苏省气象台,江苏南京210044

出　　处：《海洋预报》2012年第4期47-51,共5页Marine Forecasts

基　　金：公益性行业(气象)科研专项(GYHY201106006);江苏省青年基金项目(Q201104);连云港市科技支撑项目(SH0916)

摘　　要：利用连云港海岛站资料,分析了连云港沿海风速的分布特征,在此基础上对连云港沿海进行了风速预报的分区;应用本地业务运行的WRFV3模式对近海风速进行预报,结果表明,模式预报能较好的反映海岛站风速的变化趋势,但在风速大小的预报上存在较大误差,同时,WRFV3模式对4个站的风速预报准确率分析表明,模式对特殊地理位置区域的预报准确率比较低;用Kal-man滤波方法对本地业务运行的WRF模式的风速预报结果进行订正,结果表明,经过Kalman滤波方法订正后,对近海海岛站上风速的预报效果有明显的改善,且分区内其他站的预报效果也相应得到提高。Based on the observing data from island station, the characteristics of wind speed in Lian Yun-gang were analyzed and the sub-regions of wind prediction were set up. The result of WRF model showed that the model could resolve the variation trend of wind,speed, but the deviation of the wind speed was high. The results also showed that the model forecasting performance of wind speed was lower for the special geographical re- gion. After the adjustment with the Kalman filter method, the forecasting accuracy of wind speed was improved for the island station and all the other sub-regions.

关 键 词：海岛站 近海风速 WRF模式 KALMAN滤波 

分 类 号：P457[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]