群体性事件风险定量预测预警  

The quantitative forecast on mass event risk and early warning

作　　者：胡诗妍[1] 隋晋光[1] 王靖亚[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国人民公安大学安全防范系,北京102623

出　　处：《西北大学学报（自然科学版）》2012年第4期548-552,共5页Journal of Northwest University（Natural Science Edition）

基　　金：公安部应用创新计划基金资助项目(2011YYCXGADX124);十一五国家科技支撑基金资助项目(2006BAK01A02)

摘　　要：目的对群体性事件风险的预测预警进行了定量化研究。方法结合文献资料,运用案例的实证分析和数据的统计分析,综合应用德尔菲法(Delphi)、层次分析法(AHP)、经验统计分析等多种定量化分析方法,形成了一套关于群体性事件风险的定量化评估方法。结果构建了群体性事件风险预警指标体系,建立了基于指标体系的事件风险预警的趋势预测、动向预警、状态预警数学模型体系,并对模型体系进行了验证分析和讨论。结论指标体系及模型嵌入到公安信息化应用平台实用而有效。Aim In order to carry out mass event precaution and control operation efficiently, this quantitative research on mass event risk forecast is done. Methods Based on document literature and case analysis and statistic analysis on data, diversified quantitative analysis methods are used integratedly, including Delphi, AHP, experience statistical method, etc, and a series of quantitative assessment methods of mass events risk have been formed. Results Mass event risk early warning index system is constructed, and a mathematic model system is built to do event risk early warning trend forecast, development duection precaution, and condition warning. Besides, con- firmatory analysis and discussion are carried out on the model system. Conclusion The index system and model has been actually tested when being put into Public Security Information Application Platform and reached favorable effects.

关 键 词：群体性事件风险 预测预警 指标体系 

分 类 号：X45[环境科学与工程—灾害防治]