基于熵权证据推理的港口水域交通环境风险评估  

PWA traffic environment risk assessment based on entropy and evidential reasoning

作　　者：李伟[1] 胡甚平[2] 

机构地区：[1]南通航运职业技术学院航海系,江苏南通226010 [2]上海海事大学商船学院,上海201306

出　　处：《上海海事大学学报》2012年第3期10-13,共4页Journal of Shanghai Maritime University

基　　金：上海市重点学科建设项目(S30602);上海市教育委员会科研创新项目(09YZ252)

摘　　要：针对港口水域(Port Water Area,PWA)交通环境风险评估过程中信息的不确定性、多样性及评估指标客观权重难以确定的问题,引入信息熵权法,基于对各种不确定信息熵的计算获得客观权重,进而建立基于熵权证据推理(Evidential Reasoning,ER)的评估模型.以台州港PWA交通环境风险评估为例对模型进行验证,结果表明该评估模型有效、可行.In view of the uncertainty and diversity of the information and the difficulty in determining the objective weight of evaluating index in the process of Port Water Area （PWA） traffic environment risk assessment, the information entropy-weight method is introduced, and the objective weights are obtained based on the calculation of all kinds of uncertain information entropy, and then the model based on entropy and Evidential Reasoning （ER） is established. As a case, the model is used in Taizhou PWA traffic environment risk assessment, which shows that the evaluation model is of validity and feasibility.

关 键 词：港口水域 信息熵 证据推理 交通风险评估 

分 类 号：U653.1[交通运输工程—港口、海岸及近海工程] U698.6[交通运输工程—船舶与海洋工程]