论自然灾害风险情景的界定与情景风险表达  

A Discussion of the Definition of Natural Disaster Risk Scenarios and Its Expression

作　　者：刘耀龙[1] 李飞[1] 王军[2] 胡蓓蓓[3] 

机构地区：[1]太原理工大学科技处,山西太原030024 [2]华东师范大学资源与环境科学学院,上海200062 [3]天津师范大学城市与环境科学学院,天津300387

出　　处：《山西师范大学学报（自然科学版）》2012年第3期85-87,共3页Journal of Shanxi Normal University(Natural Science Edition)

基　　金：太原理工大学引进人才科研启动项目(TYUT-RC201110A);天津市高等学校人文社科一般项目(20092117);天津师范大学博士基金(52X09019)

摘　　要：通过对灾害风险、风险情景概念的界定,提出灾害风险情景的类型及组合方式.针对灾害情景风险分析与评估的基本程序,提出灾害情景风险的表达方式.本文强调,灾害风险只有在一定的情景组合条件下,才有表达的可能性和可靠性,才有进一步服务于区域防灾减灾的应用价值。By defining the concept of disaster risk, the risk scenario, the types and combinations of the disaster risk scenarios has been proposed. According to the basic procedures for risk analysis and assessment, the expression ways of the disaster scenarios risk has been discussed. We emphasize that the expression possibility and reliability of disaster risk exists in certain conditions and combinations of disasters＇ scenarios. There are values for regional disaster prevention and mitigation.

关 键 词：自然灾害 情景风险 界定 表达 

分 类 号：X43[环境科学与工程—灾害防治]