中国居民储蓄行为不确定性与外汇储备——在Ramsay模型下对中国经济失衡的微观分析  

The Uncertainty of the Saving Behavior of Chinese Inhabitants and Foreign-exchange Reserves: A Microeconomic Ramsay Model-based Analysis on China’s Economic Imbalance

作　　者：李佳峰[1] 刘尧成[1] 

机构地区：[1]武汉大学经济与管理学院

出　　处：《国际贸易问题》2012年第10期153-167,共15页Journal of International Trade

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重大项目"保持经济稳定;金融稳定和资本市场稳定对策研究"(批准号:08&ZD036)的阶段性成果

摘　　要：基于当前中国消费者具有不确定性预期和因缺乏成熟金融市场而存在着借贷约束等两大基本特征事实,本文通过构造一个缓冲存货模型,论证指出当本国的经济增长率小于一个特定的临界值时,居民储蓄率将与本国经济增长率呈正比例变动,而本国的外汇储备也会不断积累。这不仅解释了中国的"高储蓄之谜",也解释了其不断积累的外汇储备,从而为自20世纪90年代以来中国经济的内外部失衡提供了一个微观解释基础。据本文推测,在其他条件保持不变的情况下,如果中国经济继续保持7%的增长率,则外汇储备将有可能在2015年突破5万亿美元。据此,本文给出了相应的政策建议。In this paper, based on two economic stylized facts in China that agents have uncertainty expectation about their expenditure in the future and the financial market in China is not well developed, we construct a buffer stock mod- el and find that, if the growth rate of a country is under some critical value, consumers＇ saving rate in the country will be proportional to its economy growth rate, and its foreign reserves will accumulate as well. As these results can be used to explain China＇ s ＂high saving rate puzzle＂ and why its foreign reserves keep accumulating, this paper gives a microeconomic explanation to Chi- na＇ s economic imbalance. We profess that if the economic growth rate in China keeps 7% in the next period, and everything else being equal, the foreign re- serves will be possible to exceed 500 million dollars in 2015. Based on these findings, the paper also puts forward some policy recommendations accordingly.

关 键 词：不确定性预期 借贷约束 储蓄行为 外汇储备 

分 类 号：F713.50[经济管理—市场营销]