网络口碑决定产品命运吗——对线上图书评论的实证分析  

Does Online Word-of-mouth Determine Product’s Fate: An Empirical Analysis of Online Book Reviews

作　　者：龚诗阳[1] 刘霞[1] 刘洋 赵平[3] 

机构地区：[1]清华大学经济管理学院市场营销系 [2]英国剑桥大学工程学系 [3]清华大学经济管理学院

出　　处：《南开管理评论》2012年第4期118-128,共11页Nankai Business Review

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(71102007;71102009)资助

摘　　要：网络口碑通过什么机制来影响体验型产品的销售?它主要通过知晓效应还是说服效应来影响消费者的决策?网络口碑的内生性在其中又起到了什么样的影响?本文运用真实的线上消费者评论数据来研究网络口碑对图书销量的影响。我们发现,内生性对于分析结果有显著影响。在考虑内生性后,网络口碑中评论分数对销量的影响消失了,而其影响主要来自于评论数量。这说明网络口碑主要通过让更多消费者知晓产品来促进销量,而说服消费者购买的作用并不显著。When making the purchase decisions, consumers always expect to learn from other consumers＇ comments on the same products or services. After their purchasing, they also would like to share their own experiences with others. Such informal communications between consumers on products or services are defined as word-of-mouth （WOM）. With the development of Internet and information technol- ogy, consumers can post their comments on the products, services or online sellers on various online platforms, like their personal blogs, BBS, online social media, E-commerce websites and so on. Both the transmission pattern and influential scope of word-of-month are chang- ing dramatically. Online word-of-mouth breaks the distance and time limit of traditional offline word-of-mouth, which has a great impact on consumers＇ cognitions, decisions and behaviors. For firms, they can also initiate and manipulate the online word-of-month with low costs. There- fore, the development of online word-of-month has a great significance both to the consumers and firms. In this paper, we are going to explore some important questions of online word-of-mouth： Through what mechanism does the online word-of-mouth impact sales of experience goods？ Does such an impact majorly work through the awareness effect or persuasive effect of online consumer reviews？ What kind of role does endogeneity play in this process？ Using archived online book sales and word-of-mouth data from the domestic leading online bookseller of dan- gdang.com, this research examines the effect of online word-of-mouth on book sales. We find that the consideration of endogeneity makes a big difference in estimation. After controlling for endogeneity using a first difference analysis, the impact of valence on sales disappears while the impact of volume is still significant. The result suggests that it is the awareness effect instead of persuasive effect dominating its influences. Finally, we also discuss the managerial and practical implications as well as point out the

关 键 词：网络口碑 线上消费者评论 知晓效应 说服效应:内生性 

分 类 号：G236[文化科学] F224[经济管理—国民经济]