龙陵-瑞丽断裂北段晚第四纪活动性特征及强震复发间隔  

Strong Earthquake Occurrence Interval along the Northern Segment of Longling-Ruili Fault and Its Late Quaternary Activity

作　　者：杜义[1] 张效亮 黄学猛[1] 杜宇本[3] 谢富仁[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国地震局地壳应力研究所,北京100085 [2]中国地震灾害防御中心,北京100029 [3]中铁二院工程集团有限责任公司,成都610031

出　　处：《震灾防御技术》2012年第3期215-226,共12页Technology for Earthquake Disaster Prevention

基　　金：铁道部科技研究开发计划(2008G027-B);国土资源部深部探测技术与实验研究专项(Sinoprobe-06-04)资助

摘　　要：野外地质地貌调查表明,龙陵-瑞丽断裂(南支)北段是以左旋走滑为主兼具一定正断分量的区域性活动断裂。断裂晚更新世以来的平均水平滑动速率为2.2mm/a,平均垂直滑动速率为0.6mm/a;全新世以来的平均水平滑动速率为1.8—3.0mm/a,平均垂直滑动速率为0.5mm/a。断裂在晚更新世以来的滑动速率在不同的时间尺度上变化不大,反映出该断裂晚更新世以来的活动强度比较稳定。利用Poisson模型、Lognormal模型、BPT模型三种概率模型计算获得未来50a强震发震概率分别是:6.32%、0.08%、0.05%;三种模型分别取权重0.28、0.36、0.36,获得龙陵-瑞丽断裂北段未来50a特征地震发震概率为1.82%。The field investigation and interpretation of remote images indicate that the last activity along the northern segment of Longling-Ruili fault occurred in the Holocene with a strike-slip rate of 2.2-2.5 mm/a and vertical slip rate of 0.6mm/a since late Pleistocene epoch, and strike-slip rate of 1.8-3.0 mm/a and vertical slip rate of 0.5mm/a during the Holoeene epoch. The occurrence probability of strong earthquakes in 50 years is calculated as 6.32% by Poisson model, 0.08% by Lognormal model and 0.05% by BPT model respectively. Finally, the probability of occurrence of characteristic earthquakes for north section of Longling-Ruili fault is estimated as 1.82% with the weight of 0.28, 0.36 and 0.36 for Poisson model, Lognormal model and BPT model.

关 键 词：龙陵-瑞丽断裂 滑动速率 特征地震 复发间隔 

分 类 号：P315[天文地球—地震学]