农村金融发展与农村经济增长——一个动态演化分析视角  

The Rural Financial Development and Rural Economic Growth——A Dynamic Evolution Perspective

作　　者：陈冲[1] 

机构地区：[1]兰州商学院经济学院,甘肃兰州730101

出　　处：《经济与管理》2012年第10期19-24,共6页Economy and Management

基　　金：教育部人文社科项目(10YJC790331)

摘　　要：农村金融发展对于农村经济增长具有重要的推动作用。运用1978-2010年的相关数据和时变参数模型估计方法,就我国农村金融发展与农村经济增长之间的动态关系进行探寻。首先,协整检验与误差修正模型的估计结果显示:无论是长期还是短期,农村金融发展规模对于农村经济增长具有正向促进作用,而农村金融中介效率却对农村经济增长起到了负向抑制作用。时变参数模型的估计结果则进一步发现:农村金融发展规模对农村经济增长的促进作用在整体上呈现弱化趋势,当前的正向作用机制比较微弱;而农村金融中介效率对农村经济增长的抑制作用经历了一个先减弱后增强的"倒V"型变化过程。The rural financial development has an important role on the rural economic growth.Using the related data of 1978-2010 and the time-varying parameter model,this paper gives an empirical research on the dynamic relationship between the development of rural financial and the growth of rural economic.The results of the co integration test and error correction model show： No matter the long-term or short-term,the rural financial development scale has positive relation with rural economic growth,and the rural financial intermediary efficiency is negative.Time-varying parameter model’s estimate results show： The positive relation of rural financial development scale and rural economic growth is weakening,and the current positive effect is faint.The negative relation of rural financial intermediary efficiency and rural economic growth experiences a change process of up-to-down.

关 键 词：农村金融发展 农村经济增长 时变参数模型 动态演化 

分 类 号：F323[经济管理—产业经济]