等维灰色递补动态预测方法的改进与应用  

Improvement and Application of Same Dimensions Additional Grey Dynamic Prediction Method

作　　者：顾艳艳[1] 张丽颖[1] 

机构地区：[1]东华理工大学地质资源经济与管理研究中心,江西抚州344000

出　　处：《煤炭技术》2012年第11期76-78,共3页Coal Technology

基　　金：江西省高校人文社会科学研究项目(JJ1101);江西省社科规划项目(11GL13);东华理工大学地质资源经济与管理研究中心开放基金项目(12GL08)

摘　　要：文章以牛顿插值方法代替了普通灰色预测模型中的两相邻节点值的简单平均,对背景值进行了重新构造,引入了等维灰数递补的动态灰色预测方法,建立了煤炭年生产量和安全事故发生率的预测模型,并对每次预测结果进行了残差修正。该研究内容对于加强煤矿安全生产管理、预防安全事故的发生均具有积极的指导意义。The simple average value method between two model was replaced by the Newton interpolation method neighbor nodes in normal gray forecast to reprocess the background value. The forecasting technique based on the same dimension gray recurrence dynamic model was adopted, and the models of the annum production of coal and the accident rate were also built. Besides, the residual modification was carried on for each forecasting result. The research has some positive significance to strengthen the security management, prepare against safety accidents.

关 键 词：等维动态模型 GM(1 1)预测 煤矿安全 残差修正 

分 类 号：TB115[理学—数学] TD77[理学—应用数学]