灰色理论在贵州盘江矿区煤层气抽采量预测中的应用  

Application of Grey Theory in Guizhou Panjiang Mining Area Coalbed Methane Extraction

作　　者：孟庆浩[1] 袁梅[1,2] 何明华[1] 

机构地区：[1]贵州大学矿业学院,贵阳550003 [2]贵州省非金属矿产资源综合利用重点实验室,贵阳550003

出　　处：《煤炭技术》2012年第11期93-95,共3页Coal Technology

基　　金：贵州省科技厅社会发展攻关项目(黔科合SZ字(2009)3032);贵州省科技厅国际合作项目(黔科合外G字(2010)7008)

摘　　要：运用灰色系统理论,建立了煤层气抽采量的GM(1,1)动态预测模型,根据2003至2009年的抽采数据建立盘江煤层气抽采模糊预测模型,对盘江煤层气抽采量及利用量合理预测,预测结果的误差值均在允许范围之内,预测模拟结果与实际抽采量吻合度较高。该模型在未来一段时间内对盘江煤层气抽采量的综合估计有较高的可信度,有助于推进盘江煤层气公司的合理发展。GM （1,1） dynamic predction model of coalbed methane extraction volum is estabhshecl by using the grey threory. According to the CBM extraction data from 2003 to 2009, the fuzzy forecasting model is establised for reasonable prediction of CBM extraction and use. The errors of prediction results are in the allowed range, the goodnese of fit between predict simulation results and the practical extraction volums is higher. The model has higher credibility of comprehensive estimate of the CBM extraction volume in the next period of time. It can help to promote the ratinal development of coalbed methane companies in Panjiang Mine Area.

关 键 词：煤层气 GM(1 1)模型 灰色理论 

分 类 号：TD712[矿业工程—矿井通风与安全]