北京城市居民的养老模式选择及其合理性分析  

Urban Elders’Desirable Caring Patterns and Its Rationality: A Decision Tree Analysis

作　　者：高晓路[1,2] 颜秉秋[1,2,3] 季珏[1,2,3] 

机构地区：[1]中国科学院区域可持续发展分析与模拟重点实验室,北京100101 [2]中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所,北京100101 [3]中国科学院研究生院,北京100049

出　　处：《地理科学进展》2012年第10期1274-1281,共8页Progress in Geography

基　　金：中国科学院重点部署项目(KZZD-EW-06-04);国家自然科学基金项目(41171138)

摘　　要：基于北京市典型社区的问卷调查,运用决策树分析的方法,对城市居民在不同阶段养老方式的选择及其合理性进行了实证分析。研究表明:①目前,我国传统的家庭养老模式已经转型,北京市老年人的空巢家庭比例超过1/2,城市居民在健康状态下约80%选择独自生活,而独立生活有困难时近1/2的老人倾向于选择机构养老。②目前的主要问题是,老年人对社区居家养老的了解和认可度十分有限,养老机构总量不足的矛盾十分突出,特别是面向失能和半失能老人的养老机构床位存在大量缺口。③老年人的养老服务需求存在巨大的阶段性差异。由健康状态步入需要照护的阶段后,老年人对家庭赡养、社区养老和机构养老的需求大约分别提高到原来的2倍、4倍和8倍。基于生命周期的测算,2020年失能和半失能老人在机构和社区养老的合理比例分别为35%和30%。④当前,需求调控的重点是70岁以下低龄老人,应该引导更多的低龄老人选择社区居家养老方式。Based on a questionnaire survey in Beijing, the desirable caring patterns of urban elderly were investi- gated. With a decision tree analysis approach, the respondents＇ choices among four different caring patterns （living independently, family care, community care, and institutional care） in two scenarios were revealed, one in the healthy stage and one that a person was in need of long term care. Then the rationality of the preferred caring patterns was examined. First of all, the study manifested the lifestyle change of Chinese elderly, which was char- acterized by a tremendous number of no-child families. There was a huge gap between the needs of people in dif- ferent health stages. In particular, about half of the respondents intended to go to nursing homes if they were in need of care, while only 5.7% intended to do so when they were healthy. However, the severe shortage of caring facilities was a critical issue, especially those for the disabled and semi-disabled people, and it would be unrealis- tic to provide enough nursing beds in the future. Considering the capacity of service supply, it was proposed that the appropriate ratios for the （semi-）disabled elderly to choose institutional care and community care in the year 2020 could be 35% and 30%, respectively. Furthermore, people aged under 70 should be the main target of demand management, most of whom had demonstrated a strong preference for institutional care in the future.

关 键 词：社会养老服务 老龄化 养老模式 社区居家养老 机构养老 决策树 北京 

分 类 号：D669.6[政治法律—政治学]