基于决策树的梯级水电站泄流补偿调度风险分析  

Risk Analysis on Flow Discharge Compensating Operation for Cascade Hydroelectric Stations Based on Decision Tree

作　　者：钟平安[1,2] 张梦然[1] 蔡杰[3] 徐斌[1] 

机构地区：[1]河海大学水文水资源学院,江苏省南京市210098 [2]水资源高效利用与工程安全国家工程研究中心,江苏省南京市210098 [3]三峡梯调通信中心,湖北省宜昌市443133

出　　处：《电力系统自动化》2012年第20期63-67,121,共6页Automation of Electric Power Systems

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(51179044);国家科技支撑计划资助项目(2009BAC56B03);国家重点基础研究发展计划(973计划)资助项目(2010CB951102)~~

摘　　要：在特定条件下实施泄流补偿调度可增加梯级水电站的发电效益,但来水预报误差可能会造成龙头补偿水库的水头和水量损失,定量评估泄流补偿调度的风险,对泄流补偿决策具有重要意义。以补偿期和回蓄期来水预报误差为风险因子,给出了小流量泄流补偿的风险结构和预报来水的概率描述;建立了小流量泄流补偿风险决策树和补偿期末及回蓄期末水位的计算方法;提出了补偿期和回蓄期风险及两阶段组合风险的定量计算方法;构建了基于期望回蓄水位和可接受风险的小流量泄流补偿决策流程。实例表明,所提出的方法具有较好的辅助决策作用。Flow discharge compensating operation in cascade reservoirs can bring generating benefits of cascade reservoirs in definite conditions.But the upstream reservoir may suffer dual losses of water quantity and water head if the precision of inflow forecast fails to meet the requirement.Therefore risk assessment in compensating operation is an important task for decision-making.As the precisions of inflow forecast in compensation period and refill period are two risky factors which may result in risk generating,the risk generated in compensating operation and the probability of inflow forecast are illustrated within the introducing of risky factors.The method for calculating the water level in the end of compensation period and refill period is proposed.The calculations of the risk generated in compensation period and refill period and combinational risk in the two periods are established,and the decision flow diagram of discharge compensation is conducted based on the expected refill water level and certain acceptable risk.The result of application case shows that the model developed is effective in decision-making.

关 键 词：梯级水电站 补偿调度 风险分析 决策树 

分 类 号：TV737[水利工程—水利水电工程]