BBN模型在江苏居民氰戊菊酯长期膳食暴露评估中的应用  

Evaluation of the Long-term Dietary Exposure of Fenvalerate for the Residents in Jiangsu Province with BBN Model

作　　者：田野[1] 闵捷[1] 刘沛[1] 王灿楠[1] 

机构地区：[1]东南大学公共卫生学院流行病与卫生统计教研室,210009

出　　处：《中国卫生统计》2012年第5期661-663,666,共4页Chinese Journal of Health Statistics

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(81072304)

摘　　要：目的应用贝塔二项-正态分布模型(BBN模型)对氰戊菊酯长期膳食暴露进行评估。方法利用贝塔二项分布构建阳性摄入频率模型,用正态分布构建长期阳性暴露量模型。从分布中抽样,进行MonteCarlo模拟获得氰戊菊酯的长期暴露量,并应用bootstrap方法对评估结果进行不确定性分析。结果不同性别、不同年龄组人群各暴露水平的暴露量均位于95%可信区间内,暴露量百分位数能够达到稳定,BBN模型方法较好地量化了由短期调查数据得到的长期暴露量的变异性。结论 BBN模型可以较好地解决利用短期调查数据进行长期暴露量估计的问题,在评价氰戊菊酯长期膳食暴露风险中应用效果良好。Objective To explore the application of B13N model to evaluate the long-term exposure of fenvalerate. Methods The BBN model referred to a beta-binomial （BB） distribution used for modeling positive intake frequencies, and a normal （N） distribution used for modeling positive intake amounts. The usual intake distribution was achieved by sam- piing a large number of times from both the beta-binomial and normal dis- tribution（ Monte Carlo integration ）. The bootstrap method is applied to conduct the uncertainty of the results. Results The percentiles Of expo- sure are steady and each level of the long-term dietary exposure in different age and sex groups are located in the 95 % confidence interval respectively. BBN model could describe the variability of the long-term dietary exposure using cross-sectional data better. Conclusion BBN model is a feasible method to build the long-term dietary exposure assessment model using cross-sectional data.

关 键 词：BBN模型 长期膳食暴露评估 氰戊菊酯 

分 类 号：R151[医药卫生—营养与食品卫生学]