电网节点负荷的立体化预测方法  

A Multi-dimensional Method of Nodal Load Forecasting in Power Grid

作　　者：潘志远[1] 韩学山[1] 

机构地区：[1]电网智能化调度与控制教育部重点实验室,山东大学,山东省济南市250061

出　　处：《电力系统自动化》2012年第21期47-52,共6页Automation of Electric Power Systems

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(51077087,51007047)~~

摘　　要：把握统一大电网中任意节点负荷规律,并由此实现任意节点负荷预测对于未来电网智能化的调度与控制具有重要意义。对此,针对节点负荷自身单独、孤立预测所显现的弱点,提出节点负荷的立体化预测体系与方法,在相关性分析的基础上,试图实现电网任意节点负荷的有效预测。该体系包括:电网能量流按层、区的拓扑结构划分,每层的总量与相应节点构成的基本预测单元,以及对任一节点的组合预测。其预测方法分别基于最小二乘支持向量机、卡尔曼滤波以及加权递推最小二乘等技术。实际算例分析表明,节点负荷的立体化预测有利于预测精度的提高,具有实用前景。It is very important for intelligent dispatch and control of the future smart grid to grasp an arbitrary nodal load pattern in the general great grid to realize the load forecast of an arbitrary nodal load.With this in mind,a multi-dimensional nodal load forecast system and the corresponding method for effective prediction of an arbitrary nodal load of the grid are proposed in light of the weakness of isolated nodal load forecast and based on the correlation analysis.This system includes topological partitioning of the grid energy flow according to layers and regions,the basic forecasting unit composed of each layer＇s total amount of load and its nodal loads,and combined forecast for any one node.The forecasting method is based on techniques including the least square support vector machine,Kalman filtering and weighted recursive least squares,respectively.A case study shows that the multi-dimensional nodal load forecasting model helps to improve the forecasting accuracy and has prospects for application.

关 键 词：负荷预测 能量流拓扑 立体化预测 基本预测单元 组合预测 

分 类 号：TM715[电气工程—电力系统及自动化]