区间时间序列向量自回归模型在短期电力负荷预测中的应用  

Application of Interval Time-Series Vector Autoregressive Model in Short-Term Load Forecasting

作　　者：万昆[1] 柳瑞禹[1] 

机构地区：[1]武汉大学经济与管理学院,湖北省武汉市430072

出　　处：《电网技术》2012年第11期77-81,共5页Power System Technology

基　　金：中央高校基本科研专项基金资助项目(2011105010-20012)~~

摘　　要：电力负荷数据通常随着时间的不同而呈现一定的波动性。针对电力负荷随着时间波动呈现出一个范围波动的特点,采用区间时间序列估计与向量自回归相结合的方法对短期电力负荷进行预测,预测结果拟合良好,提高了电网公司对电力负荷的预测精确度,为电网公司制定负荷预报曲线提供精准数据信息,为电网公司编制电力负荷计划提供理论支持和有效的方法。In general,power load fluctuates along with time.In allusion to the feature that the fluctuation of power load with time is within a range,a method integrating interval time series estimation with vector autoregression is adopted to forecast short-term power load.The power load data of New South Wales in Australia from 2001 to 2010 is used for the modeling of the proposed method.The fitting of the forecasted results is satisfied and it shows that using the proposed method the load forecasting accuracy can be improved.The proposed method can provide accurate data information for the drafting of load forecasting curve and is available for the scheduling of power load planning by grid cooperations.

关 键 词：区间时间序列 向量自回归 电力负荷 预测 

分 类 号：TM714[电气工程—电力系统及自动化]