列车运行控制系统风险发生频率的分析模型研究  

Study on Risk Occurrence Frequency Analysis Model of Train Control System

作　　者：张亚东[1] 郭进[1] 戴贤春[2] 白广争[1] 

机构地区：[1]西南交通大学信息科学与技术学院,四川成都610031 [2]中国铁道科学研究院,北京100081

出　　处：《中国安全科学学报》2012年第9期37-42,共6页China Safety Science Journal

基　　金：铁道部科技研究开发计划重大项目(2012X003-A);铁道部科技研究开发计划重点项目(2012X007-D),铁道部科技研究开发计划重点项目(2011X025-C)

摘　　要：为科学评估列车运行控制系统内各危险源的风险发生频率,用故障树建模技术分析各危险源的发生原因,综合考虑风险的模糊不确定性,定义若干基于三角模糊数的语言值等级,根据专家的模糊评判数据,应用Hausdorff距离最小法集结多专家信息,建立基于模糊群决策的分析模型。用计算机算法求解模型,将求解结果与各风险发生频率等级对应的三角模糊数比较,确定待评判危险源的风险发生频率等级。最后以高速铁路某列控中心输出错误点灯控制信息为例,利用该模型评价,此危险源的风险发生频率为F级(即很少发生的),验证了模型的合理性、可行性和适用性。In order to evaluate the risk occurrence frequency of hazards in train control system more scientifically,an analysis model was built based on the fuzzy group decision-making theory.The fault tree analysis method was used to analyze the occurrence reason of hazards.Considering the fuzzy uncertainty of risk,a number of language value classes based on triangular fuzzy number were defined.According to the fuzzy evaluation data by experts,the Hausdorff minimum distance method was used to concentrate the multi expert information.The computer algorithm was designed to solve the model,and the result of the model was compared with the corresponding triangular fuzzy numbers of the risk occurrence frequency levels to determine the risk occurrence frequency level of the hazard.Finally,the model was used to evaluate the risk occurrence frequency level of the wrong lighting control information given by a certain train control center of high-speed railway and the result was F level signifying it was rare.The results show that the model is reasonable and feasible and applicable.

关 键 词：列车运行控制系统 危险源 风险发生频率 故障树分析(FTA) 模糊群决策 HAUSDORFF距离 

分 类 号：X913.4[环境科学与工程—安全科学] U284[交通运输工程—交通信息工程及控制]