中国农村金融发展对农民消费影响的实证研究——基于1979年～2010年的时间序列数据  

An Empirical Study on the Influence of China's Rural Financial Development on Consumption Demand of Farmers——Based on the Series Data from 1979 to 2010

作　　者：胡帮勇[1,2] 张兵[1] 

机构地区：[1]南京农业大学,江苏南京210095 [2]重庆三峡学院,重庆404000

出　　处：《经济经纬》2012年第6期22-26,共5页Economic Survey

基　　金：农业部软科学项目(200826)

摘　　要：笔者依据1979年～2010年的时间序列数据,实证分析了我国农村金融发展水平与农民消费之间的动态关系。结果表明,农民人均可支配收入、农村金融效率和农村金融规模都显著影响农民的消费支出,且影响力次第减弱;农村金融效率和农村金融规模对农民消费支出的影响主要体现为长期效应,短期影响并不明显;货币化程度对农民消费支出的影响不显著,主要体现为短期效应,长期内几乎没有影响。Based on the time series data from 1979 to 2010, this paper analyzes the dynamic relationship between rural finance devel- opment and rural consumption expenditure. The results show that disposable income, rural financial efficiency and rural financial scale significantly affect farmers＇ consumption expenditure, but the influence in turn reduces rural financial efficiency and rural financial scale impact on farmers＂ consumption expenditure in the long term with less significant short term effect The degree of monetization has little effect on farmers＇ consumption expenditure.

关 键 词：农村金融发展 农民消费 协整分析 脉冲响应函数 

分 类 号：F830.6[经济管理—金融学]