都市密集区的气候风险与适应性建设——以上海为例  

Climate Risk and Adaptation Strategies in Metropolis Dense Areas:A Case Study of Shanghai

作　　者：宋蕾[1,2] 

机构地区：[1]中国社会科学院城市发展与环境研究所,北京100732 [2]中国浦东干部学院,上海201204

出　　处：《中国人口·资源与环境》2012年第11期6-12,共7页China Population,Resources and Environment

基　　金：国家自然科学基金重点项目"长三角城市密集区气候变化适应性及管理对策研究"(编号:70933005);国家社会科学基金青年项目"我国低碳发展的激励问题研究"(编号:11CJL055)

摘　　要：频繁发生的极端气候灾害正在挑战都市密集区的气候风险管理能力。气候脆弱性评价和适应性建设需求是气候风险管理及政策制定的关键。研究着重探讨都市密集区的气候风险特殊性及其脆弱性影响因素。此外,研究基于参与式利益相关者分析法,以上海为例,分析了都市密集区利益相关者对气候风险的认知和适应需求差异。上海最主要的致灾因子为台风、暴雨和热浪,它们对上海社会经济的影响主要集中在交通物流、能源供给、农业发展和城市积涝。在适应需求方面,上海居民对高温适应需求较高,气象专家更关注农业的气候适应,上海市政管理者最关注暴雨洪涝的风险管理。研究结果表明:都市密集区的气候风险主要来自于:沿海地理区位的气候高敏感性、城市人口老龄化和高密度造成的人口的脆弱性、生态系统的承载能力恢复力不断下降造成的生态脆弱性和经济结构的气候脆弱性。总体而言,都市密集区在增量型适应建设具有较大空间,而上海的适应性建设应特别注重社区适应能力和城市生态适应能力的建设。Frequent extreme climate events are increasing climate risk and challenging adaptive capabilities in metropolis dense areas. The vulnerability assessment and the demands for adaptive capabilities are the crux of climate risk management and policy-making decisions. This research had emphasis on the specific characteristics of climate risk as well as the impact factors of vulnerabilities. Furthermore, grounded on the approach of participatory analysis, the case studies in Shanghai had been carried out, which reflected how different the stakeholders had the perception of climate risk and the demands of adaptation. The main hazard factors of climate change in Shanghai focused on the typhoons, rain storms and heat waves, which had impacts on social and economic development including the transportations, energy supply, agricultural development and urban waterlogging. The participatory stakeholder analysis in Shanghai depicted the different adaption demands. The communities in Shanghai emphasized the adaptation demands for heat weaves. The meteorologists paid more attention on the agricultural climate adaptation. Compared with the formers, Shanghai municipal managers would rather pay more concern on flood risk management. The research outcomes discussed the force driving factors of metropolitan climate risk including coastal geographic location, the population vulnerabilities （aging and high-density population ）, ecological vulnerabilities （the degraded ecological bearing capacities and resilience） and the vulnerabilities of economic structures. All in all, the metropolitan areas should build more incremental adaptive capabilities. In Shanghai＇ case, it should highlight adaptive capabilities building in communicates and ecological environments.

关 键 词：气候风险 都市密集区 适应 参与式分析法 上海 

分 类 号：X24[环境科学与工程—环境科学]