工业化、城镇化与农业现代化  

Industrialization,Urbanization and Agricultural Modernization

作　　者：周战强[1] 乔志敏[2] 

机构地区：[1]中央财经大学经济学院,北京100081 [2]中央财经大学财政学院,北京100081

出　　处：《城市发展研究》2012年第10期12-15,共4页Urban Development Studies

基　　金：教育部人文社会科学研究项目基金(批准号:08JC790110)的阶段性成果

摘　　要：利用1978～2010年的全国数据,构建向量自回归模型,分析了工业化、城镇化对农业现代化的影响。结果表明:工业化、城镇化变动是农业现代化变动的格兰杰原因,农业现代化变动不是工业化、城镇化变动的格兰杰原因;从脉冲响应看,来自城镇化、工业化的冲击对农业现代化变动的影响持续较长,但前者的作用更大;从方差分解看,城镇化变动比工业化变动对农业现代化变动的贡献度要高得多。This paper studies the influence of industrialization and urbanization on agricultural modernization with a vector autoregression model,using yearly data from 1978 to 2010.It shows that the changes of the industrialization and urbanization are the Granger causes of that of the agricultural modernization,but the opposite is not true,that the effect of a unit shock from the urbanization or the industrialization on the change of the agricultural modernization lasts long,but the former is bigger,and that the change of the urbanization contributes more to that of the agricultural modernization than that of the industrialization in the variance decomposition.

关 键 词：工业化 城镇化 农业现代化 向量自回归模型 

分 类 号：F303.3[经济管理—产业经济]