城市化进程中人口变动对气候变化的影响机制:理论框架与协整检验  

The Effect Mechanism of Population Dynamics and Climate Change in the Process of Urbanization: Theoretical Framework and Co-integration Test

作　　者：姚从容[1] 

机构地区：[1]南开大学经济学院,天津300071

出　　处：《城市发展研究》2012年第10期86-91,103,共7页Urban Development Studies

基　　金：教育部人文社会科学研究青年基金项目(10YJC840084);中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金项目(NKZXB1144)

摘　　要：21世纪人类正面临着气候变化与人口城市化的双重挑战,城市化带动的人口大规模空间集聚,以及现代化生产方式和生活方式对传统方式的替代,使得城市人均碳排放量迅速增加,导致城市热岛效应加剧,局地气候变化显著。论文在Kaya恒等式和STIRPAT模型的基础上,利用协整的方法发现在1978～2008年间,我国碳排放量与人口规模、城市化水平、产业结构、人均GDP和单位GDP碳排放强度之间存在着长期均衡关系。其中,对碳排放影响最显著的是单位GDP碳强度和人均GDP,其次是人口规模和城市化水平,只有产业结构变动对碳排放的影响是反方向的。寻找适合本国国情的低碳城市化发展模式将成为世界各国面临的重要议题,尤其是对于中国这样一个经济快速发展的人口大国,工业化和城市化都是不可阻挡的发展潮流,如何实现人口城市化与减缓气候变化的双赢已迫在眉睫。Climate change and population urbanization are dual challenges for human being in the 21 century.As a result of urbanization,per capital carbon emission is increasing rapidly in the urban,which lead to heat island effect and climate change in the part of regions.Based on the Kaya equation and STIRPAT model,this paper uses the co-integration test,examining the long-time impacts of population urbanization on carbon emission in China.The results show that per capital GDP and per GDP carbon emission,population size,the level of urbanization,and structure of industry were all important factors determining carbon emission from 1978 to 2008.Seeking the low-carbon urbanization development model should be a serious issue for many countries in the world,especially for the developing country,industrialization and urbanization become impassable trends in the future.Therefore,how to accomplish the win-win situation of population urbanization and climate change mitigation has proved to be an important issue for developing countries.

关 键 词：城市化 人口变动 气候变化 影响机制 协整检验 

分 类 号：X24[环境科学与工程—环境科学]