湖北省水资源短缺风险评价及对策  

Risk Assessment and Countermeasures of Water Shortage in Hubei Province

作　　者：许应石[1,2] 李长安[1] 张中旺[3] 张增杰[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国地质大学(武汉)地球科学学院,武汉430074 [2]江苏省地质调查研究院,南京210018 [3]湖北文理学院,湖北襄阳441053

出　　处：《长江科学院院报》2012年第11期5-10,共6页Journal of Changjiang River Scientific Research Institute

基　　金：湖北省水利科技项目(HBSHLKJ2007Y005);湖北省软科学研究专项项目(2011DEB008)

摘　　要：湖北省作为水资源较为丰富的地区,同样存在水资源短缺的风险。为了评价水资源短缺风险系数,在探讨风险评价理论方法的基础上,构建了水资源短缺风险评价指标体系,采用层次分析法计算指标权值,运用隶属度评价将指标数值转化为风险隶属度,二者结合加权求和计算出各评价区水资源短缺风险系数。综合评价结果表明:湖北省平均水资源短缺风险值数为5.24,属于中度风险;鄂西北、鄂东南地区分别为5.38,5.34,属于中度风险;鄂西南地区风险指数为4.10,接近低风险;江汉平原风险值最高达到5.64,属于高风险区。Hubei Province,as a water-abundant area,still has the risk of water shortage.To assess the risk of water shortage in Hubei province,we construct a water shortage risk assessment index system on the basis of theoretical methods.The index weights are calculated by using AHP（Analytic Hierarchy Process）,and the index values are converted to risk membership degree values through fuzzy evaluation method.Finally,the index weights and values are combined to calculate the weighted sum as the risk assessment index of water shortage.Evaluation results show that： the average water shortage risk index of Hubei Province is 5.24,indicating a moderate risk;the risk indexes of northwest Hubei and southeast Hubei are 5.38 and 5.34 respectively,moderate risk as well;and the risk index of southwest Hubei is 4.10,close to a low risk;the risk index of Jianghan Plain is up to 5.64 at the maximum,which suggests a high risk.

关 键 词：湖北省 水资源短缺 层次分析法 模糊数学法 风险评价 

分 类 号：TV213.4[水利工程—水文学及水资源]