非对称信息扩散理论模型及其小样本灾害事件影响评估  

Uneven Information Diffusion Model and Its Application in Inadequate Samples Disaster Events Evaluation

作　　者：张韧[1,3] 徐志升[2] 黄志松[1] 曾刚[3] 申双和[3] 

机构地区：[1]解放军理工大学气象海洋学院,江苏南京211101 [2]成都军区气象中心,四川成都610051 [3]南京信息工程大学,气象灾害省部共建教育部重点实验室,江苏南京210044

出　　处：《地球科学进展》2012年第11期1229-1235,共7页Advances in Earth Science

基　　金：气象灾害教育部重点实验室开放课题“信息不完备条件下气象灾害影响评估与风险分析”(编号:KLME1112)资助

摘　　要：针对地震灾害(特别是强震事件)评估中观测样本少,信息获取难的问题以及常规信息扩散模型难以有效刻画样本数据非对称结构的不足,提出一种"椭圆式"非对称的信息扩散评估模型。该方法可从有限数据样本结构中客观拟合出数据信息的扩散函数,进而实现对有限数据样本信息的合理拓展。实验结果表明,该非对称信息扩散技术可对不完备数据样本进行合理逼近和有效信息扩展,评估模型计算结果与客观实际情况相符。Aiming at the difficult problems of sparse observational sample data and inadequate collection of information in the process of risk analysis and disaster evaluation on earthquake,event（especially on the devastating earthquake disaster）,as well as aiming at the shortcoming of current common information diffusion model which is difficult to describe the uneven structure of actual observational sample data,an uneven information diffusion idea was introduced,the corresponding theory deduce and algorithm improvement was made and an improved ＂ellipse style＂ information diffusion assessment technique model was established in this paper.It can efficiently and reasonably diffuse the information of sparse observational data and uncompleted sample into a full fuzzy set.As a simulation application case,this technique was used to evaluate the epicenter intensity and destroy area with the collected earthquake data in Sichuan and Yunnan provinces from 1988 to 2001.By comparing the evaluation results with that of normal information diffusion method,it indicated that the uneven information diffusion method and corresponding ＂ellipse style＂ evaluation model can truly model the process of information diffusion and its evaluation result was close to the actual cases.

关 键 词：小样本事件 灾害评估 信息扩散 非对称模型 

分 类 号：P694[天文地球—地质学] X43[环境科学与工程—灾害防治]