滑坡崩塌危险性多尺度编码及其蒙特卡罗解译方法  

A Multi-scale Encoding System for Landslide and Rock Fall Hazard and Interpretation with Monte Carlo Model

作　　者：王伟 李天宏[2] 倪晋仁[1,2] 

机构地区：[1]北京大学深圳研究生院环境与能源学院,城市人居环境科学与技术重点实验室,深圳518055 [2]北京大学环境工程系,水沙科学教育部重点实验室,北京100871

出　　处：《北京大学学报（自然科学版）》2012年第6期949-956,共8页Acta Scientiarum Naturalium Universitatis Pekinensis

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(50579001)资助

摘　　要：编制了滑坡崩塌多尺度分类编码体系。针对滑坡崩塌灾害的特点,将不同尺度下影响滑坡崩塌发生与危害程度的多因子信息,通过编码形式赋予特定的滑坡崩塌单元。选取有灾害记录的单元作为参照组,利用蒙特卡罗模型对参照组单元的编码进行解译,其余大量单元的编码则可根据编码之间的相似性快速确定其危险度。该方法具有适用范围广、不确定性小、对数据要求低、编码信息全面直观、减少数据冗余及降低运算量的特点,研究成果对于全面准确地识别滑坡崩塌特征、滑坡崩塌危险度预测和滑坡崩塌灾害的防治具有重要意义。An encoding system for landslide and rock fall hazard, applicable to multi-scale, is proposed. Multi-factor information that can affect the landslide and rock fall hazard occurrences and their hazard degrees is given to study units by codes at different scales. Some study units with historical disaster records are selected as reference, and codes of these units in reference are interpreted by Monte Carlo model. Then a large number of other units can be interpreted according to the assumption that regions with similar codes should have similar hazards. Wide range applications, paying more attention to uncertainty study, low requirements for data, intuitive and detailed information presented by codes, avoiding redundancy of data and simplifying calculation are advantages of this approach. This study has great significance for identification of landslide and rock fall hazard characteristics and hazard assessment and prevention.

关 键 词：滑坡崩塌 编码 多尺度 蒙特卡罗 危险度 

分 类 号：P642.22[天文地球—工程地质学]