基于Norton-Bass模型的多代创新产品扩散研究  

Analysis of Innovation Diffusion with Multiple Generations Based on the Norton-Bass Model

作　　者：胡知能[1] 邓欢[1] 张弛[1] 徐玖平[1] 

机构地区：[1]四川大学不确定决策实验室,四川成都610064

出　　处：《管理工程学报》2012年第4期127-136,共10页Journal of Industrial Engineering and Engineering Management

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(70971091)

摘　　要：本文基于多代创新产品的扩散特点,首先建立了三代产品扩散的基本模型,然后,结合实际的产品营销活动,将免费赠送商品、产品定价策略和商品的重复购买等因素分别引入该基本模型,建立了相应的扩展模型,在此基础上,以免费商品赠送率为重点考察对象,分别对基本模型和扩展模型进行了分析。研究发现重复购买者的出现会导致产品的销售峰值上升,总利润增加和销售周期的延长,且会促使生产厂商采取更大比例的赠品率来促进总利润的增加。The research of product diffusion models began in the early 20＇h century and has gradually become active since 1960s. The Bass （1969） model is one of the most well-known and widely used models used to understand the demand for the first purchase. Bass＇s original logistic formulation has received a number of modifications and extensions. Multi-generation innovation diffusion can be seen as a special case for the diffusion of competitive products. In the product diffusion area the most famous model is Norton and Bass＇s （1987） model. In the process of diffusing multi-generation products, the interaction between each generation product reflects customers＇ preference to different products in their purchasing behavior. When there is only one generation product diffusion in the market, its diffusion process is similar to Bass model. That is the case of normal diffusion of a single product. But when there are new generation products, the market structure will be changed accordingly. The new generation product has upgraded and improved features and can attract new customers. Meanwhile, some consumers who prepare to buy the previous generation product will be attracted by the features of the new generation product, and instead purchase the new generation product. The purchasing behavior of these consumers is not necessarily the same as their original purchase behavior. So it is necessary to explore such interactions in the process of diffusing multi-generation products. The product diffusion process is influenced by a variety of market factors, such as product pricing strategies, consumer purchasing behavior and marketing strategies. When launching a new product, a firm usually can choose two distinct kinds of pricing strategies： skimming strategy and penetration strategy. The skimming strategy uses a high price initially to ＂skim＂ market when the market is still developing in order to recover investment before competitors develop a similar product. In contrast, the penetration strategy uses a low p

关 键 词：产品扩散 多代产品 赠品 价格策略 

分 类 号：F273[经济管理—企业管理]