基于经验模式的非常规突发事件应急决策研究  

Experience-Based Unconventional Emergencies Decision-Making Research

作　　者：姜卉[1] 李婷[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国科学院大学,北京100049

出　　处：《电子科技大学学报（社科版）》2012年第5期33-37,共5页Journal of University of Electronic Science and Technology of China(Social Sciences Edition)

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助(70901072)

摘　　要：非常规突发事件给人类带来了巨大的经济损失和人员伤亡,合理地制定非常规突发事件应急决策成为减少损失最关键的因素。但是,传统的应急决策模型由于其苛刻的假设条件,使其实际应用性得到极大置疑,而"经验"确成为制定决策的关键因素。首先,论述运用经验进行非常规突发事件应急决策的客观必然性;其次,进行了经验对应急决策"影响路径"分析;最后,基于"经验—决策"分析,提出以后进一步研究的方向。The unconventional emergencies make our human beings suffer increasingly serious economic loss and casualties.A proper decision is turned out to be the most important thing to reduce the loss and save the casualties.But traditional emergency decision-making model is not suitable for the unconventional emergencies.In this paper,the application of experience to unconventional emergency decision-making is discussed.Firstly,the existence and importance of the application of experience to unconventional emergency decision-making are highlighted according to some important conclusions of intuitive decision-making theory and naturalistic decision-making theory.Secondly,through analyzing how ＂experience＂ can affect ＂emergency decision making＂,the advantages of applying ＂experience＂ to ＂unconventional emergency decision-making＂ are illustrated.Lastly,from the perspective of ＂experience-research＂,several possible further research topics are put forward.

关 键 词：经验 非常规突发事件应急决策 自然决策 直觉决策 

分 类 号：F275[经济管理—企业管理]