异质有限理性预期与城市住房价格波动  

Heterogeneous Boundedly Rational Expectation and Urban Housing Price Volatility

作　　者：李峰[1] 

机构地区：[1]华中师范大学经济学院,湖北武汉430079

出　　处：《中国房地产（学术版）》2012年第11期21-32,共12页China Real Estate

基　　金：本文受到华中师范大学创新性实验计划项目的资助.

摘　　要：我国城市住房价格出现了周期性波动现象，为使住房价格调控政策具有很强的针对性，必须明了城市住房价格变化及其周期波动的内在机制。本文基于异质有限理性预期，将更为广泛的有限理性预期模式纳入到房地产价格决定模型之中，并利用我国35个大中城市2002—2010年的动态面板数据分析了异质预期对于城市住房价格波动的作用。研究发现：房价并没有与经济基本面相偏离，人均可支配收入、利率和房价预期都会影响房价，但收入水平和利率的决定作用有限，房价预期对于城市住房价格波动的解释力最强。异质的预期模式对于房价波动也具有明显不同的作用，适应性预期和一般有限理性预期能够自发地调节房价，将房价波动限制在一定的范围之内并逐渐实现住房市场稳定。China＇s urban housing price appeared the phenomenon of periodic volatility. In order to make the housing price control policies have very strong pertinence, it＇s necessary to understand the internal mechanism of urban housing price changing and periodic volatility. Based on the heterogeneous boundedly rational expectation, this paper takes into the more extensive the boundedly rational expectation pattern into the real estate price decision model,and investigates the impacts of heterogeneous expectations upon urban housing price volatility by using the dynamic panel data of 35 major cities in China from 2002 to 2010. This paper finds that：the urban housing price is not deviated with economic fundamental, and affected with average per capita disposable income, interest rates and housing price expectation, however, the decision action of income level and interest rate is limited, housing price expectation is testified to have the greatest influence on the urban housingprice volatility. There is the signifi- cant difference between these heterogeneous expectation patterns in the influences upon the urban housing price volatility, adaptive expectation and generally boundedly rational expectation can spontaneously adjust the housing price, and put the urban housing price volatility into a certain range and gradually realize the housing market stable.

关 键 词：异质预期 有限理性 房价波动 动态面板数据 

分 类 号：F293[经济管理—国民经济]