基于VAR(向量自回归)模型的我国体育用品产品销售与经济增长计量动态分析  

Dynamic Analysis on China's Sports Goods Sales and Economic Growth Measurement Based on VAR Model

作　　者：杨央[1] 袁音[1] 于飞[1] 孙杰[1] 赵治善[1] 

机构地区：[1]西北师范大学体育学院,甘肃兰州730070

出　　处：《成都体育学院学报》2012年第11期22-25,共4页Journal of Chengdu Sport University

摘　　要：运用VAR(向量自回归)分析法,考察了2008年1月～2011年12月我国体育产品制造业产品销售与国内经济增长之间的贡献程度及动态演进关系,结果表明:我国体育产品销售和经济增长趋势有显著相关性,后奥运时期我国体育产品销售继续保持较快发展,反映出我国体育运动人口逐年增加而提高了体育产品消费水平,体育产品销售对经济增长贡献率较大,我国体育用品前景十分广阔。VAR （ vector regression） analysis method is adopted to observe the contribution of China＇ s sports goods sales and the domestic economic growth as well as their dynamic evaluation from January, 2008 to December, 2011, with the result showing that there is a remarkable correlation between sports products sales and domestic economic growth. China＇ s sports goods sales in the post - Olympic era have witnessed stable and rapid development, which indicates that the gradual growth of people＇ s participation in sports in China has promoted the consumption level of sports products. Sports product sales have contributed significantly to economic growth. China enjoys a promising prospect in terms of its sports products.

关 键 词：VAR模型 体育产品销售 经济增长 计量动态分析 

分 类 号：F274[经济管理—企业管理] F426.8[经济管理—国民经济] F224