GM(1,1)模型的背景值构造方法和应用(Ⅲ)  

The Structure Method Application of Background Value in Grey System GM(1,1) Model (Ⅲ)

作　　者：谭冠军[1] 

机构地区：[1]中南工业大学机电工程学院,湖南长沙410083

出　　处：《系统工程理论与实践》2000年第6期70-74,共5页Systems Engineering-Theory & Practice

摘　　要：将作者在重构的背景值公式引入 GM ( 1,1)模型 ,导出了 GM ( 1,1)模型的逻辑斯蒂( Logistic)形式 ,并以此为基础 ,对 GM( 1,1)模型进行了稳定态 ,周期态及混沌态特性研究 .研究结果表明 :重构的背景值公式扩大了 GM( 1,1)模型的适应性 ,能提高其拟合和预测精度 ,使 GM( 1,1)In this paper, for the problem that grey GM(1,1) model often makes delay error for fitting high growth index series, we point out that the structure method of background value in grey GM(1,1) model has an important influence on the precision and adaptability of the model. From this point of view, the structure method of background value is researched, a simple calculating formula of background value is reestablished which has strong adaptability. An obvious feature of the new calculating formula of background value is that it makes GM(1,1) model have the ability to optimize the modeling results, the best fitting and forecasting precision can be obtained with it. The new formula is suited to building GM(1,1) model for both low growth index series and high growth index series. It is the key technology of enhancing GM(1,1) model precision and adaptability. The calculating precision of examples show this new formula is very effective.

关 键 词：GM(1 1)模型 背景值构造方法 灰色系统理论 

分 类 号：N94[自然科学总论—系统科学]