用模糊神经网络定量类比预测龙滩水电工程库周区经济  

Prediction of the Economic Development for the Circumjacent Reservoir Region of the Longtan Hydropower Project Using Fuzzy Neural Network

作　　者：董景荣[1] 段虞荣[2] 

机构地区：[1]重庆大学工商管理学院,重庆400044 [2]重庆大学系统工程及应用数学系,重庆400044

出　　处：《系统工程理论与实践》2000年第6期131-136,共6页Systems Engineering-Theory & Practice

基　　金：国家自然科学基金 !( 79770 10 5) ;重庆市科委资助项目 !( 5569)

摘　　要：采用模糊推理与神经网络相结合的方法 ,选定已积累有较长的实际运行资料的丹江口工程作为类比工程训练模糊神经网络权值及模糊子集的划分 .在此基础上 ,将训练好的模糊神经网络用于龙滩水电工程库周区进行经济影响的预测 ,并将建库与未建库对库周区经济发展的影响作了对比 。In order to overcome some technical difficulties, we adopt ingeniously the fuzzy logic system combined with neural network method, and select the Danjiangkou Project which has accumulated practical operation data for a long time as the analog project to learn the connection weights of the fuzzy neural networks and partitions of fuzzy subsets. On the basis we use the fuzzy neural network which has been trained well to predict the economic influence for the circumjacent reservoir region of the Longtan hydropower project, and compare them with the corresponding predictions for the unconstructed reservoir case. The prediction of the former is greatly larger than the later ones, and hence provides certain scientific basis for our country to make a decision of constructing the huge hydropower project ultimately.

关 键 词：模糊神经网络 库周区经济 龙滩水电工程 

分 类 号：F127[经济管理—世界经济]