基于CREAM和不确定推理的人因可靠性分析方法  

A Human Reliability Analysis Method Based on CREAM and Uncertain Reasoning

作　　者：柴松[1] 余建星[1] 马维林[1] 杨源[1] 

机构地区：[1]天津大学建筑工程学院港口与海洋工程教育部重点实验室,天津300072

出　　处：《天津大学学报》2012年第11期958-962,共5页Journal of Tianjin University(Science and Technology)

基　　金：国家自然科学基金创新研究群体科学基金资助项目(51021004);上海交通大学海洋工程国家重点实验室研究基金资助项目

摘　　要：提出了一种基于认知可靠性与失误分析方法(CREAM)和不确定性推理的适用于海洋工程的人因可靠性分析方法.首先根据海洋工程的作业环境特点,对共同绩效条件(CPC)进行了修正.之后为解决CREAM本身固有的不确定性,利用模糊数学原理实现CPC评价的模糊化,再基于CREAM的分析流程建立贝叶斯网络,完成由CPC得到控制模式的推理过程,并证明贝叶斯网络的建模效率要高于模糊模型.由贝叶斯网络输出控制模式的隶属度,再通过去模糊化的方式计算得到人误概率.最后,针对某平台的实例分析结果证明该方法能够提高计算的精度.A human reliability analysis method applicable to offshore engineering, based on uncertain reasoning and cognitive reliability and error analysis method （CREAM）, was proposed. To begin with, according to the character istics of offshore operation environment, the common performance conditions （CPC）was modified. To address the uncertainty and ambiguity, which are inherent in CREAM, CPC was fuzzified by using principles of fuzzy mathe matics. Then a Bayesian network based on CREAM was established to perform reasoning of control modes from CPC. The modeling of Bayesian network was proved to be more efficient than that of the fuzzy model. According to mem berships of control modes, reasoned from the Bayesian network, the human error probability was obtained by de fuzzification. Finally, an example of application of the method was provided, and the analysis result showed that the method can improve accuracy of calculation.

关 键 词：海洋工程 人因可靠性分析 认知可靠性与失误分析方法 模糊理论 贝叶斯网络 人误概率 

分 类 号：TE58[石油与天然气工程—油气田开发工程]