信号交叉口行人过街遵章率预测模型  

Prediction Model for Pedestrian Obeying Traffic Rule at Signalized Intersections

作　　者：孟虎[1] 陈艳艳[1] 刘花[1] 

机构地区：[1]北京工业大学交通工程北京市重点实验室,北京100124

出　　处：《公路交通科技》2012年第12期114-118,132,共6页Journal of Highway and Transportation Research and Development

基　　金：国家重点基础研究发展计划(九七三计划)项目(2012CB723303)

摘　　要：利用摄像机观察记录的6个交叉口总量600个行人在通过信号交叉口时的行为特征数据,分析了影响行人行为的影响因素,利用Logit模型对信号交叉口行人过街遵章率建立了预测模型,并对结果进行了合理性分析。结果显示,当没有护栏或者没有完整护栏的情况下,绕行距离比越大,行人使用过街设施的比例就越低,当有完整护栏设施的情况下,遵章率和绕行距离比关系不大;当没有护栏或者没有完整护栏的情况下,交通干扰越大,行人使用行人过街设施过街的比例就越高,当有完整护栏时,交通干扰对遵章率影响不大;当没有护栏或者没有完整护栏的情况下,路侧干扰越大,行人使用过街设施通过交叉口的比例就越低,当有完整护栏的情况下,路侧干扰对行人遵章率的影响不大。因此完整且适当的护栏设置可以有效地提高行人过街的安全性。结论为交叉口安全性改造措施的有效性提供了理论上的支持。Based on 600 data of pedestrian behaviour information collected by DV in six intersections, the influencing factors for pedestrian using crossing facilities were analyzed. The influence factors for pedestrian using crossing facilities are analyzed, and the Binary Logit （BL） model on predicting pedestrian obeying traffic rule at signalized intersections is built. The Result shows that （ 1 ） When there is none or uncompleted barrier, the higher the detour-crossing rate, the lesser the possibility of using crossing facilities. When there are complete barriers, the detour-crossing rate has less effect on obeying rate. （2） When there is none or uncompleted barrier, the higher the traffic disruption, the higher the possibility of using crossing facilities. When there are complete barriers, the traffic disruption has less effect on obeying rate. （3） When there is none or uncompleted barrier, the larger the obstacles at sidewalk, the lesser the possibility of using crossing facilities. When there are complete barriers, the obstacle has less effect on obeying rate. Complete and proper barriers can improve pedestrian crossing safety effectively. This research provided a theoretical support for the effectiveness of safety improvement measures for intersection area.

关 键 词：交通工程 遵章率模型 LOGIT模型 行人安全 措施 

分 类 号：U491.23[交通运输工程—交通运输规划与管理]