供给与需求不确定的离散交通网络设计模型  

Discrete traffic network design model under supply and demand uncertainty

作　　者：陆化普[1] 李悦[1] 蔚欣欣[2] 

机构地区：[1]清华大学交通研究所,北京100084 [2]交通运输部规划研究院,北京100028

出　　处：《东南大学学报（自然科学版）》2012年第6期1221-1226,共6页Journal of Southeast University：Natural Science Edition

基　　金：国家高技术研究发展计划(863计划)资助项目(2007AA11Z202;2007AA11Z233);教育部博士点基金资助项目(20070003065)

摘　　要：考虑到交通规划中供给需求及决策准则的不确定性,提出了一种基于不确定理论的离散交通网络设计模型.首先,假设供给和需求为随机变量,使用半标准差和风险价值来度量不确定性,建立了考虑决策者风险态度的多目标双层优化模型.随后,使用基于帕累托概念的SPEA2算法对网络优化模型进行求解.以研究中常用的Nguyen-Dupuis网络作为算例进行计算,结果表明:引进风险价值可以有效度量交通规划中决策者的风险态度;多目标规划中不同目标之间存在替代关系;增加建设资金可以有效提高网络性能,但是当投入资金增加到一定额度以后,改善效果并不明显.Regarding the uncertainty of traffic supply,demand and decision principles in traffic design,a design model for uncertain discrete traffic network based on uncertainty theory is proposed.Firstly,supply and demand elements are assumed to be stochastic variables.The semi-standard error and value at risk are used to measure uncertainty and a multi-objective bi-level optimized model considering decision risk attitude is built.Then,SPEA2（strength pareto evolutionary algorithm 2） based on the conception of Pareto is applied to solve the multi-objective bi-level optimized model.The numerical results of Nguyen-Dupuis network show that the risk value can reflect decision maker＇s attitude towards risk in measuring traffic design.In various targets there are alternative relations in multi-object design.The increase of the construction funds can effectively improve the network performance.However,such improvement is not obvious when the investment is beyond a certain limit.

关 键 词：离散交通网络设计 供给与需求不确定 风险态度 风险价值 双层模型 

分 类 号：U491.1[交通运输工程—交通运输规划与管理]