鱼雷射击随机误差分析的几个问题  

Discussion about Random Error Analysis of Torpedo Shooting

作　　者：李长文[1] 任行者[1] 王鹏[1] 

机构地区：[1]海军潜艇学院科研部软件中心,山东青岛266071

出　　处：《鱼雷技术》2012年第6期443-448,共6页Torpedo Technology

摘　　要：借助直航鱼雷直进射击的描述,研究了射击命中问题的随机误差及其相关性的概念,指出了基于目标运动要素观测值或真值计算成功概率的不同。就客观概率情形,基于误差向量函数的1阶近似或2阶近似研究了计算概率的解析方法,以及关于正态随机向量的一般二次函数分布的均值、方差和特征函数计算公式的一个定理,给出了2阶近似情形计算概率的解析方法,数值实验发现,就直航鱼雷直进射击成功的客观概率而言,两种方法均有较高精度,且1阶近似方法优于2阶近似方法。Through the description of straightforward shooting of a straight running ,torpedo, the random error and some concepts of hitting problem are studied, and the difference between success probabilities based on true value and ob- served value of target movement element is pointed out. For objective probability, two analytic methods of computing probability are proposed based on the first order or second order approximation of the function of random error vector. According to a theorem about the formulas to compute the mean value, variance and eigenfunction of a common second order function of normal distributed random vector, an analytic method with the second order approximation is given. Results show that the two analytic methods have high precision, and the first order approximation method is better than the second order one in the case of computing the objective hitting probability of torpedo straightforward shooting.

关 键 词：直航鱼雷 随机误差 客观概率 解析方法 

分 类 号：TJ630[兵器科学与技术—武器系统与运用工程] E920.2[军事—军事装备学]