开放条件下中国金融风险预警指标体系研究  

A Study on Early-warning Indicator System of China's Financial Risk under the Condition of Opening-up

作　　者：孙立行[1] 

机构地区：[1]上海社会科学院世界经济研究所

出　　处：《世界经济研究》2012年第12期30-37,85,共8页World Economy Studies

基　　金：2011年度教育部人文社会科学重点研究基地重大项目"金融市场一体化发展与风险控制"(项目批准号:11JJD790015)的资助

摘　　要：本文从金融危机形成机理的分析入手,构建了一套由宏观经济风险指标、金融市场风险指标、银行经营风险指标以及金融开放风险指标等4个子系统组成的金融风险预警综合指标体系。本文采用动态分析的方法,考察该指标体系对我国金融风险变化的预警功效,从而为金融危机的预警提供量化判断依据。研究表明,金融开放带来的跨境短期资本流动变化及其对外短期债务规模扩大的风险,对金融体系安全的影响较大,值得密切关注。From the viewpoint of the formation mechanism of the financial crisis,this paper constructs a comprehensive early-warning system for financial risks by using four sets of risk indicators about macro economy,financial markets,bank operation and financial opening-up.It applies dynamic analytic methods to examine the early-warning effect of this indicator system on the trend of changing financial risk,so as to provide a quantitative judgment for the warning signal of financial crisis outbreak.The study shows that the volatility of short-term cross-border capital flows and the increasing amounts of short-term foreign debts due to financial opening-up will put a large impact on the stability of financial system.Therefore it needs to be closely supervised.

关 键 词：金融开放风险 预警指标体系 金融危机 金融安全 

分 类 号：F832[经济管理—金融学]