基于时间序列分析和灰色理论的建筑物沉降预测模型研究  

Research on Building Subsidence Prediction Model Based on Time Series Analysis and Grey Theory

作　　者：徐卫东[1] 伍锡锈[1] 欧海平[1] 

机构地区：[1]广州市城市规划勘测设计研究院,广州市建设大马路10号510060

出　　处：《测绘地理信息》2012年第6期23-25,共3页Journal of Geomatics

摘　　要：基于时间序列分析方法建立建筑物沉降预测模型,其中通过二次移动平均法提取出沉降监测序列中的趋势项,并在此基础上采用灰色系统理论动态GM(1,1)模型进行趋势项预测。实际算例结果表明,该模型能够较好地预测沉降变化的发展趋势,并具有较高的预测精度,证明了该预测模型具有一定的可行性和有效性。Based on time series analysis,a building subsidence prediction model is established,in which a double moving average method is used to extract the trend of subsidence monitoring sequence.On this basis,a dynamic GM（1,1） model of a grey system theory is build as a prediction model.An actual example result shows that this model can predict the a developing trend in building subsidence and is highly precision,so the feasibility of this model is supported.

关 键 词：时间序列分析 沉降预测 二次移动平均法 GM(1 1)灰色模型 

分 类 号：P258[天文地球—测绘科学与技术]