基于GIS的安徽省旱灾风险空间演变研究  

Risk spatial evolution of drought disaster study in Anhui Province based on GIS

作　　者：孙仲益[1] 张继权[1] 严登华 王春乙[3] 刘兴朋[1] 佟志军[1] 

机构地区：[1]东北师范大学城市与环境科学学院自然灾害研究所,吉林长春130024 [2]中国水资源和水利研究院,北京100038 [3]海南省气象局,海南海口570100

出　　处：《东北师大学报（自然科学版）》2012年第4期133-137,共5页Journal of Northeast Normal University(Natural Science Edition)

基　　金："十二五"农村领域国家科技计划项目(2011BAD32B00-04);全球变化研究国家重大科学研究计划项目(2010CB951102);国家自然科学基金资助项目(41071326)

摘　　要：安徽省是典型旱灾频发省份,而且每年发生旱灾的地区都有变化,了解旱灾风险空间动态变化的规律对防灾减灾部门及时准确制定抗旱规划意义重大.利用自然灾害风险形成四因子理论,选取安徽省气象、水文、社会和经济等18个指标,建立了安徽省旱灾风险评价模型,对安徽省2000—2009年旱灾风险进行了区划,利用单一风险动态度、综合风险动态度和风险置换系数等研究手段和方法对安徽省2000—2009年间旱灾风险动态变化进行了分析.结果表明:安徽省单一旱灾风险动态度变化的波动性较强,综合风险动态度变化则比较稳定;高旱灾风险和中旱灾风险、低旱灾风险和中旱灾风险之间置换相似性较强.Anhui Province is typical of the frequent drought provinces in China,and the region where drought disaster happened changed every year.It is benefit the disaster prevention and reduction department to drawing up drought control planning timely and accurately by understand the risk of drought disaster dynamic distribution rules.Firstly,through the nature disaster risk formation four factor theory,assessment model of drought disaster risk of Anhui Province was established,by using metrological,hydrological,society and economical etc.features as indicators.Secondly,analyze comprehensive dynamic degree of drought risk in Anhui Province from 2000 to 2010 by means of the dynamic degree of single risk,the dynamic degree of integrated risk,gravity center migration of risk and risk replacement coefficient.Mapping and analyze the risk zoning of drought disaster by GIS.The results showed that the single level dynamic degree of drought risk changed strongly,but the dynamic degree of integrated risk relatively stable in Anhui Province;It was strongly resembling that the transition between high risk-middle risk and low risk-middle risk.

关 键 词：风险分析 旱灾风险 空间演变 安徽省 

分 类 号：X43[环境科学与工程—灾害防治]