多模式集合预估21世纪淮河流域气候变化情景  

Projection of Climate Change with Various Emission Scenarios over Huaihe River Basin in the 21^(st) Century

作　　者：李秀萍[1] 徐宗学[1] 程华琼[2] 

机构地区：[1]北京师范大学水科学研究院,北京100875 [2]北京师范大学全球变化与地球系统科学研究院,北京100875

出　　处：《高原气象》2012年第6期1622-1635,共14页Plateau Meteorology

基　　金：国家重点基础研究发展计划项目"气候变化背景下未来水文情景预估及不确定性研究"(2010CB428402);国家高技术研究发展计划项目"物理气候系统模式的典型应用示范"(2010AA012305)共同资助

摘　　要：利用政府间气候变化委员会第四次评估报告(the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergov-ernmental Panel on Climate Change,IPCC AR4)的14个全球气候耦合模式对中国淮河流域气温和降水的模拟能力进行了评估,预估了该地区21世纪的降水和气温变化。同时,还分析了14个气候模式对1961-1999年气温和降水的模拟能力,并且根据Taylor方法选取具有较好模拟能力的模式做集合分析。结果表明,不同的气候模式对淮河流域的气温和降水都具有一定的模拟能力,但大多数模式模拟的气温偏低、降水偏多;选取的模式集合可以明显改善模式的模拟能力,但是没有表现出明显的优势。对淮河流域降水和气温未来情景的预估表明,各模式给出的情景结果尽管存在一定的差异,但模拟的21世纪气候变化的趋势基本一致,即气温持续增加,降水出现区域性增加;还重点分析了14个模式集合的结果在2010-2039年、2040-2069年和2070-2099年3个时段的年平均、季节平均降水和气温变化及其时空变化特征,结果表明,3个时段的气温和降水在不同情景下都是逐渐增加的,A2情景下增幅最显著,B1情景下增幅最小。Using 14GCMs from the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change（IPCC AR4）,the simulated air temperature and precipitation in the Huaihe River basin has been assessed,and their changes in the 21st century are projected.The simulation ability of 14GCMs in simulating present climate for one single GCM is analyzed by comparing with observations for 1961-1999,and the ensemble simulation ability composed by better models selected through the Taylor diagram is analyzed as well.The results suggest that all GCMs show the good simulation ability for air temperature and precipitation over the Huaihe River basin,but most of them underestimate air temperature and overestimate precipitation.Ensemble models could improve the simulation ability,but do not show the best performance as anticipated.Although the scenarios projected by 14GCMs vary greatly,all models project consistent increasing trends in air temperature and precipitation in the most regions of the Huaihe River basin in the 21st century.The characteristics of annual and seasonal means,and temporal and spatial changes for air temperature and precipitation from the projection of ensemble models by 14GCMs in 2010-2039,2040-2069and 2070-2099have been investigated.The results suggest that both air temperature and precipitation would increase during three benchmark periods under the different scenarios,with scenario A2 increasing the most and scenario B1the smallest.

关 键 词：多模式集合 气温 降水 淮河流域 数值模拟 

分 类 号：P467[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]