基于非集计模型的武广线高铁与民航竞争研究  

Competition between Wuhan-Guangzhou High-speed Railway and Civil Aviation Based on Disaggregate Model

作　　者：张旭[1] 栾维新[1] 赵冰茹[1] 

机构地区：[1]大连海事大学交通运输管理学院,辽宁大连116026

出　　处：《交通运输系统工程与信息》2012年第6期17-21,47,共6页Journal of Transportation Systems Engineering and Information Technology

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(41101113);中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金资助(2011JC040)

摘　　要：高速铁路投入运营以后,航空运输市场份额明显下降,两种高速客运方式产生了激烈的竞争.本文以武广沿线高铁与航空的实地调查数据为基础,根据非集计模型的相关原理,建立了描述武广沿线高铁与航空运输竞争的Binary Logit模型,并将调查获得的SP数据进行RP数据修正,对模型求解得出不同机票折扣下的高速铁路与航空运输的竞争程度.通过对模型结果的分析,我们发现当武广航空运输票价低于7折时,高铁与航空运输将产生激烈竞争,且票价折扣越低,竞争越激烈.研究成果对高铁与航空运输的协调发展及避免二者的恶性竞争具有重要意义.With the operation of high-speed railways,the market share of air transportation has certain decrease,and there exist intense competitions between these two modes.Bases on the field data from the Wuhan-Guangzhou high-speed railway and the data from some air companies,this paper develops a competition binary Logit model for Wuhan-Guangzhou high-speed rail and air transport with the non-set design model and relevant principles.The stated preference（SP） data are revised under revealed preference（RP） data,and the competition degree between high-speed railway and air transportation are measured by different air ticket price discount.The results indicate that when the ticket price discount of Wuhan-Guangzhou air is higher than 30%,there exist in tensive competitions between the high-speed railway and air transportation,and the higher the discount is the more competitions exist.This research is beneficial for balancing the development of high-speed rail and air transportation and avoiding blind competitions of these two modes.

关 键 词：运输经济 非集计 SP数据 

分 类 号：F532[经济管理—产业经济]