中国水产品出口波动的实证分析:1992～2011  

An Empirical Analysis of the Export Fluctuation of Chinese Aquatic Products:1992～2011

作　　者：刘庆博[1] 刘俊昌[1] 

机构地区：[1]北京林业大学经济管理学院,北京100083

出　　处：《国际经贸探索》2013年第1期15-24,共10页International Economics and Trade Research

摘　　要：文章在分析中国水产品出口规模变化、产品结构和市场分布的基础上,运用修正后的CMS模型,从市场、结构和竞争力三方面,四个时期分析了1992～2011年中国水产品出口的波动及各分解因素的强度及变化趋势。研究发现:中国水产品出口增长最主要的动因是竞争力效应,市场规模效应次之,出口结构效应最弱;更进一步的分解表明,市场结构效应是影响出口结构效应的主要因素,产品竞争力效应较市场竞争力效应对出口竞争力的贡献更明显。Based on the changes of export scale, product structure and market distribution of Chinese aquatic products, this paper uses the modified constant market share model to analyze the export fluctuation of Chinese aquatic products as well as the strength and trend of influence factors from the three aspects of market, structure and competitiveness, and in the four periods from 1992 to 2011. It finds that the main cause for the export growth of Chinese aquatic products is the effect of competitiveness, with the scale of market being the second and the structural effect of exportation being the weakest. The further decomposition shows that the structural effect of market is the main influence factor for the structural effect of exportation. The contribution of product competitiveness effect on export competitiveness is more obvious than that of market competitiveness effect.

关 键 词：水产品 出口波动 修正的CMS模型 

分 类 号：F127[经济管理—世界经济]